Post three, the big one, the Presidential vote. This is another one that is definitely in play but also with a clear front runner in Joe Biden. I have him as a 2-1 favorite (I would say 3-1 but I want to be cautious) If you look at the Safe/Likely D vs Safe/Likely R figures my calculations are 213D-113R. If you factor in the Leaning D/Leaning R states then it rises to … [Read more...] about Election Forecast: The Presidency
Election Forecast: The Senate
Post number two, the US Senate (see my earlier post on US House for explanation of how I get my predictions) The US Senate is much closer than the House and may well go with the Presidency. I'd give it about a 2-1 chance favoring Democratic control but GOP control is still very possible. Right now the Senate is 53 R, 45 D and 2 I (both of whom vote with D) so basically … [Read more...] about Election Forecast: The Senate
Election Forecast: The House
So time for my final election prediction posts, there will be 3 (House, Senate, President). Just to briefly review, I get my forecast by combining the analysis of 3 major experts (Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato and Stuart Rothenberg) plus the averaging of polls by Real Clear Politics. I then tweak a little based on my own observations and run a series of … [Read more...] about Election Forecast: The House
Vote as If Your Life Depends on It. Because It Does.
by Michael Winship November 3rd is upon us. At the risk of overstating the obvious, if you haven’t already done so, and in the name of all that’s good and fair, please exercise your right to vote. It’s more crucial than ever. Truly. I come by this attitude honestly. Somewhere around here I have a photocopy of an old article from my hometown newspaper in upstate New York. … [Read more...] about Vote as If Your Life Depends on It. Because It Does.
When can states begin processing mail ballots?
In any election, Tuesday night totals are incomplete and preliminary. In this election, the preliminary nature of “election night” returns is magnified by the unprecedented volume of mail ballots and the vagaries of state law on how they are processed and counted. According to the Brennan Center, since 2010 about out-in-four ballots cast in a federal election have been mail … [Read more...] about When can states begin processing mail ballots?
Vote America! (Cartoon)
Trump’s dark campaign goes down to the wire, Biden predicts victory
Kenosha (United States) (AFP) - President Donald Trump rallied late Monday in Kenosha, the Wisconsin city at the center of racial protests this summer, in a final hour bid to prove the polls wrong and retain the White House, while his challenger Joe Biden predicted victory and told America to "take back" democracy.On the eve of Election Day in the tensest race in recent memory, … [Read more...] about Trump’s dark campaign goes down to the wire, Biden predicts victory
Sorry Woke-Rouge: We’re *Not* That Racist in America.
The incredibly misguided 1619 Project and the new religious movement of "wokeism" has finally jumped the shark. Yes, fellow liberals: we have our own deplorables now. The whole "White Fragility" nonsense has its own original sin, its saints (St. Di Angelo, St. Kendi, St. T.-N. Coates and other grievance grifters), its own dogma, its metaphoric witch burning, twitter … [Read more...] about Sorry Woke-Rouge: We’re *Not* That Racist in America.
211 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD NOT VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP (Cartoon and Column)
Get a cup of coffee and sit down. This is my final pitch before election day (you may have already voted) for why you should NOT vote for Donald Trump. I have been putting this together since late August. I’m going to list every reason I can think of that should persuade you from voting for Donald Trump. I believe every single one of these issues, or points, is a stand alone … [Read more...] about 211 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD NOT VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP (Cartoon and Column)
Final Polls Roundup
Final Presidential and other election polling is now coming in. Various analysts and pollsters are (gingerly) predicting various outcomes: from some who suggest Donald Trump may do better than many think to Democratic strategist James Carville who predicts a Joe Biden victory will be known by 10 p.m. EST election night. Quinnipiac poll:Florida: Likely voters Biden 47%Trump … [Read more...] about Final Polls Roundup
Judge rejects Republican suit against ‘drive-thru’ voting
Washington (AFP) - A federal judge in Texas rejected Monday a Republican effort to disqualify "drive-thru" voting in Houston, allowing some 127,000 votes in the Democratic-leaning area to stand.In one of scores of innovations made by election authorities across the country to deal with the Covid-19 challenge, Harris County set up tents in 10 locations that voters could drive … [Read more...] about Judge rejects Republican suit against ‘drive-thru’ voting
A ‘Back-of-the-Envelope’ Election Calculation Update and Forewarning (‘Update’)
"UPDATE": The first results are in - for whatever it’s worth: All five votes in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, went to Biden. "The ballots were cast in the minutes after midnight, becoming some of the first cast and counted on Election Day." In Millsfield, N.H., Trump got 16 votes and Biden 5. On the other hand, Hart’s Location, N.H., a community that “also … [Read more...] about A ‘Back-of-the-Envelope’ Election Calculation Update and Forewarning (‘Update’)
Why the 2020 Presidential election is not like 2016
So we're at Election Eve. I posted the 538 charts for 2020 and 2016, not necessarily to say that Nate Silver is "right" (though I think he's broadly right here) but rather to show how different the dynamics of 2016 were than today. Why did the 2016 election look like a sine wave, or a rubber band snapping back to near-even? Simple: Both candidates were extremely … [Read more...] about Why the 2020 Presidential election is not like 2016
How worm omelettes slithered their way into Vietnamese cuisine
As autumn's chilly winds sweep through the Vietnamese capital, anticipation grows among Hanoi's foodies for a rare, slithering delicacy, one that’s unsuitable for the squeamish: fried worm omelettes.At a street-side stall in Hanoi's hectic Old Quarter, a tourist hotspot famous for markets and eateries dotted along ancient streets, strangers sit shoulder-to-shoulder on tiny … [Read more...] about How worm omelettes slithered their way into Vietnamese cuisine
A Growing Cancer Problem
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cancer is the second leading cause of death in the USA. So, which type of cancer kills the most American women each year? If you think that it is breast cancer, then you are mistaken. The correct answer is lung cancer. Lung cancer also kills more American men than any other kind of cancer. CNN quotes … [Read more...] about A Growing Cancer Problem
SIX REASONS TO WAVE BYE BYE TO THE BIDEN FAMILY ‘SCANDAL’
No matter what happens in this presidential election, it has been deeply satisfying to watch the Joe and Hunter scandal hooey explode on the launch pad. Republicans have long been adept at smearing the opposition with lies. In 1988, they said that Michael Dukakis polluted Boston Harbor and unleashed black rapists in the white suburbs. In 2000, they said that Al Gore boasted … [Read more...] about SIX REASONS TO WAVE BYE BYE TO THE BIDEN FAMILY ‘SCANDAL’
The ‘Shameful Caterwauling’ of Fifteen New York Times Columnists: Washington Examiner
When the Washington Examiner dedicates more than 800 words to mock and denigrate a collection of essays by the best New York Times opinion columnists, you know the Times has struck a nerve, has hit a home run. In a unique interactive column titled “What have we lost?” the Times features, and links to, all its 15 columnists’ essays that explain “what the past four years have … [Read more...] about The ‘Shameful Caterwauling’ of Fifteen New York Times Columnists: Washington Examiner
Indian doctor tricked into buying ‘Aladdin’s lamp’ after genie display
Two men who allegedly duped a doctor into buying an "Aladdin's lamp" for $93,000 - and even conjured up a fake genie (also known as a jinn) - have been arrested in India, an official said on Sunday.Laeek Khan approached police in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh after he realised the lamp did not have any magical powers, as described in the popular folk tale about Aladdin … [Read more...] about Indian doctor tricked into buying ‘Aladdin’s lamp’ after genie display
You have rights when you go to vote – and many people are there to help if there’s trouble at the polls
Poll workers, election observers and poll monitors are all on hand at voting places to ensure the 2020 election proceeds smoothly and safely. Macrovector/iStock via GettyImages Daniel R. Birdsong, University of Dayton Despite all the challenges to this year’s election – long lines, calls for voter intimidation, baseless claims of fraud – voting is a … [Read more...] about You have rights when you go to vote – and many people are there to help if there’s trouble at the polls
Sir Sean Connery has died aged 90
James Bond legend Sir Sean Connery has died.The Scottish star - who was the first actor to play 007 on the big screen - has passed away at the age of 90 with his family confirming that he died in his sleep while in the Bahamas.Connery's first outing as British super spy Bond was in 1962's 'Dr. No' and in total he played author Ian Fleming's character a total of seven times with … [Read more...] about Sir Sean Connery has died aged 90