Despite national approval ratings below 40 percent, President Trump maintains a stronghold on his core supporters, at least within GOP primary contests. Last night, Ken Paxton, the Trump-backed state attorney general, won the Republican primary, unseating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Cornyn has served four Senate terms.
Attorney General Paxton defeated Cornyn by over twenty-seven points. During his victory speech, Paxton credited Trump for his win, calling Trump’s endorsement “the most powerful force in politics.” Paxton is expected to run against Democratic nominee James Talarico. A campaign source said Talarico raised $600,000 in the first two hours after Paxton secured the GOP Senate primary, adding that it was the campaign’s strongest two fundraising hours.
>However, while Trump has demonstrated a powerful influence over GOP primary voters, it is unclear whether that influence will extend to general elections.
Retiring Republican Congressman Don Bacon said in comments to USA Today, “One can have a totally loyal minority or a majority. I prefer a majority.” Bacon was not the only Republican expressing concerns about Trump-backed candidates costing general elections.
Some Republicans have pointed to recent races in which Trump-backed candidates won Republican primaries but went on to lose general elections
In Georgia, Trump-backed Herschel Walker secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate but lost a close general election and subsequent runoff to incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. In Arizona, Trump-backed Kari Lake won the Republican gubernatorial primary before losing the general election to Democrat Katie Hobbs. Blake Masters, also endorsed by Trump, won the Republican Senate nomination but lost the general election to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. In Pennsylvania, Trump-backed Mehmet Oz secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate before losing the general election to Democrat John Fetterman.
Other Republicans have also pointed to races in which candidates not backed by Trump won general elections. In Colorado, Jeff Crank defeated Trump-backed state GOP chair Dave Williams in a Republican primary and later went on to win the general election in the safely Republican seat formerly held by retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn.
The longer-term impact of Paxton’s victory on other Republican primaries and on Trump-backed candidates more broadly remains uncertain, particularly if he falls short in the general election.
Caricature: DonkeyHotey/Flickr