I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts.
06/12/2008
Larry J. Sabato on CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT, CONTINUED: 2008 contests for the U.S. House – June update
Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year. Nothing has changed our forecast in the six months since, and if anything, we now see November 2008 as probably the best year Democrats have had in many a moon. Only a solid presidential victory by John McCain that is strong enough to come with coattails attached can change this vision of the next congressional Election Day.
We always like to start with a bit of history, so let’s review it again. Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often – years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.
Since 1970 we have had five of those years…