Who would have thought that South Carolina, one of America’s most reliably Republican states, could become a political battleground that helps determine which party controls the United States Senate?
Yet that’s precisely what’s happening as the November 3 midterm elections approach.
A New York Times/Seina poll shows Democratic candidate Annie Andrews virtually tied with Republican Sen. Arline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham. The two are at 48 percent each.
South Carolina. A toss up. Imagine that.
This is a state Donald Trump carried by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024. Republicans weren’t supposed to be fighting for political survival here. They were supposed to be counting their votes, celebrating their victories and worry about other states.
Instead, they’re discovering that political real estate once considered safely Republican may suddenly have a Democratic buyer.
And South Carolina may not be the only surprise.
In Maine, Republican Susan Collins faces another tough re-election battle. Democrat Troy Jackson has narrowly led in some recent polls, although others show a virtual tie.
Collins has survived political predictions of her demise before. She has cultivated a reputation as a moderate Republican, even as critics argue that her votes too often helped advance Trump’s agenda. Her ability to attract independents has repeatedly saved her political career.
But this time, will Maine voters decide that enough is enough?
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is favored over Republican Mike Rogers in the race for an open Senate seat. A Democratic victory there would be important because the party cannot afford to lose seats it already holds while trying to capture Republican territory.
North Carolina offers another promising opportunity, with former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper favored over Republican Michael Whatley.
And then there’s Texas.
Yes, Texas.
Democrat James Talarico is running a competitive race against Republican Ken Paxton in a state where Democrats have spent years watching promising campaigns end in disappointment.
Ohio is another battleground, with former Democratic Sen. Sharrod Brown trying to make a comeback against Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
Meanwhile, Democrats must protect incumbents such as Georgia’s Jon Ossoff. Even if Democrats capture several Republican seats, losing one of their own could erase an important gain.
Florida, where Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon, remains a much tougher Democratic target.
The arithmetic is unforgiving. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate. They can’t simply win one or two headline-making races and declare victory.
But what once appeared to be a difficult climb is now looking considerably more achievable.
Decision Desk HQ’s October 28 forecast gives Democrats at 58 per cent change of taking control of the Senate. That hardly guarantees victory. It does, however, suggest that Republicans have plenty of reason to be nervous.
Reports have surfaced in several states of voters attempting to vote for Democratic candidates on touchscreen voting machines, only to find Republican candidates selected instead.
Election officials say such problems can result from accidental touches, screen calibration issues of vote error. There is no established evidence that these incidents represent a coordinated effort to manipulate the election.
Still, the reports deserve careful investigation. Voting systems must work properly, and voters must have confidence that their selections are being accurately recorded.
There are also questions about the power of social media companies during elections.
Florida Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon says Meta suspended her campaign’s Latino outreach Instagram account during a crucial period of voter mobilization.
Whether the suspension resulted from an automated enforcement mistake, a legitimate policy violation or something else remains unclear. But the incident raises a larger issue: How much influence should private technology companies have over political communication in the final days before an election?
A candidate can spend months building a campaign organization made inside a technology company.
None of this proves a conspiracy. But it underscores why accountability and transparency matter, particularly when elections are close.
Democrats are finding opportunities in states where they once struggled to be competitive. Republicans are spending energy defending seats they expected to hold comfortably. And voters appear increasingly willing to consider alternatives.
Whether this reflects dissatisfaction with Trump, economic anxieties, individual candidates of a combination of all three will be debated long after the votes are counted.
But one thing is already clear.
Republicans who expected an easy stroll toward another Senate majority are discovering that the road has become considerably more treacherous.
Democrats could still fall short. A handful of narrow Republican victories in Maine, Ohio, Texas or Iowa could preserve GOP control. Polls are snapshots, not election results. and close races have a habit of embarrassing confident forecasters.
But consider the irony.
The party that once seemed to have an almost insurmountable advantage in the Senate is now confronting competitive races across and unexpectedly broad political map.
And South Carolina, of all places, could help decide the outcome.
For Republicans, that’s not exactly the kind of Southern hospitality they had in mind.
Image: Shutterstock
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, writes a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.