The political pundits, political operatives and political scientists will be analyzing the New Hampshire primary results for days but there is one thing that won’t be in dispute: the victories of Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican Senator John McCain are the tales of two comebacks.
(Be sure to read our co-blogger The Talking Dog’s excellent take on all the comebacks in this vote HERE.)
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON had been virtually counted-out by Election Day. Most (not all) polls showed her support going south faster than snowbirds traveling from New York to Florida in winter. Her candidacy’s historic nature — the first woman to be seriously in the running for President — was seemingly-overshadowed by Senator Barack Obama, who (until tonight) seemed on a fast-track to be the first black American to be the Democratic Party candidate…and perhaps hold the Oval Office.
Her husband, former Bill Clinton, seemed to be virtually working overtime to alienate the press. Nothing leaves editors colder than candidates who blame the press (particularly candidates who, for a while, seemingly got a pass from the press on some matters). She was charisma-challenged, at time when Obama showed a new generation the kind of charisma Baby Boomers experienced in Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr, JFK and RFK. Many perceived her as “damaged goods” because her image had been so carefully-shaped and lampooned by conservatives such as talk show host Rush Limbaugh.
Why did she win? Did voters agree with Bill Clinton’s angry diatribes at the end about the press and Obama? Was it the choking up? Or the piling on ABOUT the choking up — the exaggerations in the media and talk shows? (Clinton did not weep, break down, etc). Did women get upset seeing all the Democratic men ganging up on her at the last debate? Did John Edwards help her win, with his blunt attacks? Could Edward’s fading political star have benefited her? Or did Republican Senator John McCain continue to have such wide appeal to independents that he siphoned votes away from Obama?
No matter. Hillary Clinton WON in an upset. So her candidacy survives. And, now, the Democratic Party establishment types that had been close to jumping overboard can put their life preservers away (for now). It may be a brutal contest, but the New Hampshire vote evened the Democratic playing field. It’s really Obama Versus Bill and Hillary Clinton. May the best man –or man and woman –win…
SENATOR JOHN McCAIN apparently completed the extensive balancing act. In New Hampshire, at least. He made his way from one end of the political tightrope to the other. McCain’s political resurrection is about as incredible as any story in American politics — and it was by a BIG margin, leaving his closest rival, former Gov. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, in the dust. Among other things, McCain proved you don’t have to have great hair to win.
It must be an especially happy moment for McCain. In 2000 he was the flavor of the month on college campuses and was to that race what Obama is today. Then he lost to George W. Bush and decided to win-over all of the GOP groups that sandbagged him. Independent voters were watching and he lost them in droves due to his position changes. He became a super war hawk at a time when the nation turned against the war. He lost staff. Money. His presidential campaign was dead.
Except McCain didn’t see it that way.
Seemingly liberated with having to be handled by handlers or big expectations, McCain inched back to the blunt-speaking iconoclast so loved by many independents and detested by so many Republicans. Reporters talked about his zest and zeal. Doubts about Romney — and New Hampshire newspapers denouncing the former Massachusetts governor for changing a ton of positions — led voters to give him a second look. And independent voters did, too. So John McCain is back in the Presidential campaign business again at the top echelons.
In the end, McCain might not wind up the nominee. And perhaps Ms. Clinton won’t. But they both had a chance to enjoy the ecstasy of the COMEBACK — that event when others (including yourself) may be counting you out but you gave it one final push with all you had…and something good finally happened.
HERE IS A CROSS-SECTION OF WEBLOG OPINION ON THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY VOTE:
—Kos:
Hillary Clinton just showed everyone who had called this thing for Obama that, in fact, there’s a much longer race in store. How exciting! No coronation this year. The candidates are going to have to earn their victory the old fashioned way — one vote at a time. Update: And wow — EVERYONE was wrong about NH. Even Clinton’s team seemed to have conceded the state.
After the awful news about Ron Paul’s ugly, repellent past newsletters, I find myself rooting again for the man who was my second choice. He did this from scratch, after his campaign bottomed out last summer. He faced a much-better financed establishment candidate in Romney, he stuck with his immigration position, he kept up a schedule that would have drained a man half his age, and he stuck with the surge, a tactic that worked far better in damping down violence than I expected, even if it has not achieved its critical political objectives.
The Democratic race is riveting – as women seem to be backing Clinton much more emphatically than they did in Iowa. But this is McCain’s night. His victory over Romney was a very, very big one. Right now, it looks like a 7 point lead. That’s decisive.
Now with Hillary winning New Hampshire, all that Obama love turns into “STUNNING VICTORY, HILLARY COMEBACK!…etc…etc” Obama is going to get the full force of the Clinton campaign machine. The sad part is I had a whole “Obama is the Hannah Montana” of politics due to his all style but no substance post derailed because of her victory. Bah.
—Ed Morrissey as usual has a post that MUST be read in full. Part of it:
Hillary did one more thing with this win; she proved she can adjust and adapt to her missteps. She spent the last eight or nine weeks giving Barack Obama an opening for the nomination, and in New Hampshire she somehow found just enough strength to close the door on him. Make no mistake, Obama will continue to be a factor, but the momentum has come to a halt. Hillary has stopped the bleeding, and she can now hone the message and rebuild her lead on a state-by-state basis. She can shut him out with a win in South Carolina (in a dead heat at the moment), and now that she has won this race, she will likely hold the Democratic establishment.
….One last thought: this is the second state where the independents broke towards the Democrats. Republicans need to consider that and its implications for the entire ticket in November.
Wow. What the hell happened? The Des Moines Register poll called it exactly in Iowa. Yet, most of the polls going into New Hampshire grossly over-estimated Obama’s lead. Or, were the polls right but something happened in the past 24 hours to cut Obama’s lead and add to Hillary’s? The tear? The black thing? Or are polls simply no longer relevant in an age of cell phones? And perhaps the biggest lesson of the evening is that we cannot afford to be cocky heading into the general election, even if the polls say that we’re going to cream them in November.
—Scott O Rama’s opinion changed for the better of Hillary Clinton when she cried:
I’ve been as big of Hillary detractor as anyone out there, but it was this that made me reconsider her. The cynics out there will say that it was calculated and staged, but I do think that she really does believe what she is saying and that the emotion is real.
My biggest reason so far for not supporting Hillary is that I didn’t think she could win. Perhaps, and only perhaps, if she showed more of herself like this, she could pull off a victory. I’m not willing to give up on Edwards yet (as I still think he’s the surest bet against a Republican), but should he not make it, I’m beginning to think my support would go to Hillary over Obama. That’s just me though and it’s not definite yet.
—Michelle Malkin put her column (revised) on her site. Here’s part of it (read it in full):
Don’t let the “Comeback Gal” spin fool you. Despite the unexpectedly close finish in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton’s campaign remains in a tailspin. And the Clintons’ pre-Granite State primary finger-pointing has left an indelible mark. It’s the media’s fault. It’s sexism’s fault. It’s the vast right-wing conspiracy’s fault.
Oh, and it’s all your fault that you laugh out loud when she tries to steal the mantle of “change” from Barack Obama by surrounding herself on stage with moldy political fogies like Madeleine Albright, Wesley Clark and James Carville.
Obviously women voters came out and believed her “Muskie moment” on Monday. Obviously, Hillary connected with voters when she pulled out her can of whupass Saturday night during the debate. The question is now, can Hillary keep up the act? Can she script a tear now and then? Can she keep from yelling monotonously during campaign events and driving men crazy? We’ll see.
On the Republican side, no surprises at all. Everyone thought McCain would win and he did. The big question now is, what happens to Mitt Romney? Can he come back and win now that he has lost Iowa and New Hampshire? Sure, he won Wyoming but no one is really paying attention to that. If anyone has the clock running against him, it’s Mitt.
Looks like I’m gonna have to keep that Ding Dong the Witch is Dead video for another time….Coming up, though, are states that actually have some blacks living in them and I suspect the blip Hillary gets with women will be blopped by Obama’s African-American vote, particularly across the south. But this will be a long-haul race now. Edwards doesn’t figure at all, but he’s hanging in.
McCain is still distrusted by many rank and file Republicans and conservatives. Granted, not everyone follows the ins and outs of Washington politics, but he’s still walking with some big negatives, and as the new top dog, expect the immigration slashing to start from Huckabee, who comes down on all sides of that issue with firm conviction and steady purpose.
i don’t like McCain, and I think he’d make a lousy president. But unlike Mitt, I know where McCain stands somewhat better than half the time. That makes him the lesser evil, and a great foil tonight for getting Romney out of the race.
And Hillary is ahead of Obama? By four points? I’m telling you, you’ve got to run a stake through the heart, separate the head from the body, burn the remains and scatter the ashes in heavy winds if you want to put a Clinton down for good.
—Ann Althouse has some reactions to her watching the vote unfold. Two of the most interesting ones:
Wow! What a disappointment for Obama-lovers. Can it be that Hillary and her crying turned things around? Did people see how much Bill Clinton wanted to keep going and feel sympathy? Or is it a case of: New Hampshire voters not wanting to be told what to do? But when I read of the huge turnout, I assumed a big Obama victory. I guess her collapse was quite odd, and the news that it wasn’t real makes sense.
….McCain speaks. The chant is “Mac is back.” He can’t call himself “The Comeback Kid,” because he’s not a kid. But it’s a great comeback. “I’m going to New Hampshire, and I’m going to tell you the truth…. I talked to the people of New Hampshire. I reasoned with you.” Did anyone ever concede like that before? I reasoned with you. Beautiful. ADDED: Mmmm…. “concede” isn’t quite the right word!
In stark contrast to Obama’s speech in Iowa, declared Republican primary winner John McCain’s victory speech in New Hampshire decidedly underwhelmed the pundits on MSNBC, including Keith Olbermann, Joe Scarborough, Gene Robinson, Howard Fineman and Katrina Vanden Heuvel
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.