The final USA Today/Gallup poll has Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama with a solid 11 percent lead over Republican Sen. John McCain at a time when each side has pointed to sometimes contradictory polls showing their side has made gains. But this Gallup poll is likely to resonate louder than some of the others.
The poll also brought some bad news for McCain about his Vice Presidential pick Gov. Sarah Palin and some good news for Obama about his favorable rating.
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.
With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:
• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.
Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.
The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.
So this poll took into account first-time voters and also early voters. One of the more fascinating aspects of presidential elections is the contest among polling firms to see which one most accurately predicted the outcome.
Meanwhile, USA Today’s Washington bureau chief, Susan Page notes that McCain’s choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate does not appear to be destined to go down in history as one of the wisest decisions in modern political history:
McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.
Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.
In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.
Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.
Another eye-opener: Page reports that Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — “the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.”
Some other polls just out:
*Obama is 11 points ahead of McCain in Minnesota.
*Obama’s lead widens in New Jersey.
*Obama is up 5 points in Colorado, leading McCain 49 to 44 percent.
*Obama now leads McCain in Michigan 57 to 37 percent.
*McCain continues to hold a wide lead over Obama in Utah, but he has lost some support in recent days.
*Obama leads McCain slightly in Nevada.
*Obama has a 17 point lead over McCain in Iowa.
*Obama leads McCain 58% to 41% in New Mexico.
Expect a lot more “final polls” over the next 24 hours — until the big really final poll on Tuesday…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.