Hopes are cautiously inching up — we can’t say “flying high” — in the latest effort by Israelis and Palestians to short-circuit violence in the Middle East.
Hopes have been raised — and dashed — before, but some analysts say this time it could be different. The Christian Science Monitor notes:
But recent history has shown that going beyond summitry to managing tough internal politics and the risk-taking needed for sustained peacemaking is a difficult transition.
From the Camp David summit in July 2000 to Aqaba, Jordan, in 2003, expectations have been raised only to be followed by crushing disappointment and violence. The collapse of the Camp David bid to resolve all outstanding issues led to the outbreak of the intifada in September 2000.
So why should anyone expect this won’t end the same way? There’s this:
This time around, analysts say, some key variables have changed. In Israel’s view, the biggest difference is the death of Yasser Arafat, whom it and the US shunned for alleged ties to terrorism.
“Now the boulder has been removed and the road is clear,” says Sharon spokesman Raanan Gissin. But Palestinians say the problem was – and remains – Sharon, not Arafat.
Factors helping define the current Israeli-Palestinian dynamic, say analysts, include the mutual exhaustion, the planned Gaza withdrawal, and international determination not to allow Abbas’s efforts at stabilizing Palestinian politics and ending the armed intifada to come to naught. “This is the first time I feel that both sides have reached a point where … there must be a new era and better conditions on both sides,” says Palestinian analyst Khader Abu Abarra.
So there is one certainty in all of this: Arafat being gone can’t hurt.
UPDATE:
—NPR Analysis.
–Transcript of Mahmoud Abbas’ speech
—State Department welcomes it but notes that ceasefires can be broken.
–Here’s another view of this development.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.