The latest poll shows Obama is ahead of McCain and McCain is less defined in many voters’ minds. Does this this mean McCain is poised for better future numbers? Or does this mean the Obama camp must start defining McCain? Yes, this poll showing Michelle Obama ahead of Cindy McCain will get a lot of attention –and will probably keep political operatives busy figuring out how to use its results to their advantage…
Why does this matter, you (rightfully) ask? When every factor is being exploited and used in what is likely to be an — kindly excuse the word — bitter election, the spouses can indeed play a role in winning over or turning off some voters. This could count among swing voters and in vital swing states. Rush and Randi get your big verbal guns ready puhl-leaze…
But what jumps out in this poll is the following: you mean after ALL of that demonization on weblogs and on conservative talk show radio Michelle Obama still polls better than Cindy McCain? Is demonization, oversimplication and taking a quote and ranting about it losing its touch? If so, how can American politics (and blogs and talk radio) survive? The poll:
In the battle of the spouses the early edge is Michelle Obama’s, in favorable views and intensity of sentiment alike. But there are sharp differences among groups, and plenty of room to move for the less well-known Cindy McCain.
Forty-eight percent of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably, vs. 39 percent for McCain, a 9-point Obama advantage. Slightly more, though, also view Obama unfavorably – 29 percent vs. McCain’s 25 percent.Substantially more, 36 percent, haven’t yet formed an opinion of McCain, vs. 23 percent in Obama’s case. For both, those are sizable numbers who’ve yet to make a judgment.
The popularity of presidential candidates’ spouses does not drive vote preferences. But in contests where every advantage can count, spouses do play a very public role. Cindy McCain is highlighting her support for children’s charities with a visit to Vietnam this week, while Michelle Obama hosts the ABC program “The View” on Wednesday.
The polling finds a slew of differences in how the two women poll. Here’s just part of it:
Obama’s ratings peak at 84 percent favorable among African-Americans, 66 percent among liberals and Democrats alike and 61 percent among young adults, age 18-29. Not surprisingly, those are among her husband’s core groups; indeed it’s his support that seems largely to drive views of his wife. Among people who prefer Barack Obama for president vs. John McCain, 73 percent like Obama’s wife, too.
McCain’s support, naturally, inclines the other way. Though the difference is less striking, she’s better rated by non-feminists (41 percent favorable) than by feminists (33 percent). She does best with Republicans (62 percent favorable) and with her husband’s supporters (56 percent of whom like her, too). But her favorability rating among conservatives (46 percent) is a full 20 points below Obama’s among liberals.
In fact, political wives matter a lot these days.
Partisans on the other side will use every argument and possible factor they can muster to campaign against their candidate’s rival, and package and repeat it (constantly) via their respective info-opinion machines. Planting negative imagery about a politician’s wife is another way to get at a politician. Just remember: if you vote for HIM you get HER!!
Or HIM. A new twist on this factor came in campaign 2008 when polls (and some voting results) showed that aspiring first spouse Bill Clinton’s controversial interventions in his wife Senator Hillary Clinton’s Democratic Presidential primary campaign were turning off some voters.
So if you don’t think Michelle and Cindy Obama’s names will come up during the campaign — think again. Expect the political wives’ names to come up — and expect them to have some highly quotable comments as election day drawers closer.
Photo by Reuters
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.