The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll continues more bad-news trending for Senator Barack Obama in his epic battle with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton has widened her lead over him and is now ahead by four points:
Hillary Clinton has edged ahead of Barack Obama, 49% to 45%, in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.
The four percentage point Clinton advantage in the April 28-30 polling is not statistically significant, but suggests slight movement in her favor after she and Obama had been tied the previous six days. Obama had held a significant lead over Clinton throughout much of April. The current margin is the biggest in Clinton’s favor since March 17-19 polling.
Obama has had a rough few weeks in the campaign, with his widely publicized remarks about “bitter” voters, Clinton’s decisive win in the crucial Pennsylvania primary, and renewed media attention to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the controversial former pastor of Obama’s church, with Wright speaking out publicly this past week. Obama has also come under criticism from both Clinton and John McCain for opposing a proposal to suspend the federal gasoline tax during the summer months. As a result, Obama has moved from a consistent lead over Clinton to a deficit. Obama has just a few days to reverse the tide going into next Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
Trending is important in polling — and the trending doesn’t look much better when Obama is matched against McCain: Clinton would now be a tougher candidate for McCain to beat:
The latest general election results show Obama now trailing McCain by a statistically significant 47% to 43% margin among registered voters. Clinton and McCain are now tied in the general election at 46%, as McCain’s support in relation to Clinton and Obama has picked up in recent days.
Obama has clearly taken some steps in recent days (his statement to the press, his appearance with his wife on the Today Show) to try and reverse the erosion. But with key primaries coming up soon, is it too little too late?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.