Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has now entered into his biggest political battle yet — one that is filled with political perils and could well determine his political future:
His ultimatums rebuffed by lawmakers, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Monday ordered a Nov. 8 special election that could trim the power of California’s Legislature and dampen the influence of the public employee unions that help finance its Democratic majority.
Along with Schwarzenegger’s agenda, the ballot is expected to include initiatives that, if approved, would change the way minors obtain abortions, electricity is sold and prescription drug prices are set.
So on the face of it, reading this Los Angeles Times story, it’s a simple matter. But read on:
But at its heart are three measures that Schwarzenegger hopes will alter — in his favor — the way Sacramento operates. The centerpiece initiative would give him much more power to cut state expenditures, a change he said was essential for California’s fiscal health.
“Without reform, we are destined to relive the past all over again: $22-billion deficits, higher car taxes and the threat of bankruptcy,” Schwarzenegger said in a 3 1/2 -minute address broadcast from his Capitol office. The speech was bypassed by many television stations consumed by the Michael Jackson acquittal.
Coming a year before he is up for reelection, the speech was a blunt acknowledgment of how much Schwarzenegger’s relationships with state lawmakers and many groups have eroded in the 1 1/2 years since he took office.
Indeed, those who don’t live in California can’t understand the depth of the deterioration of his image here. There has been a major shift, although you’d never know if you listen to Schwarzenegger, a person who is always happily confident.
He came to office in a bitter recall, replacing the highly unpopular (and incompetent) Democratic Governor Gray Davis. Many Republicans reluctantly supported him even though their hearts were with a more conservative candidate. Schwarzenegger probably never would have won in a GOP primary. Partisan Democrats hated him (at every turn many of his critics still call him “The Gropenator”). But many other Democrats and independents, election results showed, went for him in droves because they wanted Davis out and because Schwarzenegger voncinced them that he was authentic, independent-minded or moderate Republican.
His initial persona was of a cheery Regeanesque, politico who would not “belong” to anyone. To some, Schwarzenegger had the potential to become a truly populist governor and change the structural problems that plagued California’s political scene via his considerable political clout, or going directly to the people.
But as his fights have unfolded, he got himself in trouble due to peppery statements (exploited by his foes at times), charges that he has taken more money from special interests than any other governor, and in imagery terms his morphing into a governor who is now more of a traditional Republican governor (a la Pete Wilson) than an independent or even maverick Republican. This has been great news to the state and national Republicans. But his victory margin didn’t come from people who voted for him because he had an “R” in front of his name, but but because he promised to chart a fresh course that would not be business-as-usual.
The way California is now set up means that he automatically must confront Democrats and interests allied to them for changes. So by the very definition of change this battle is shaping up as one in which Schwarzenegger will have to use all of his remaining charm and clout to woo some voters whose support he lost due to his newer image as a more traditional politician and Republican governor.
In short: novelty of The Terminator as governor has worn off; now he’s down to his skills as Arnold S the politician. MORE:
Other initiatives he endorses would delay teachers from gaining tenure — a slap at one of Sacramento’s most powerful interests — and stop legislators from designing districts that ease their relections.
Schwarzenegger had demanded in January that the Legislature act on his proposals, but Democrats dismissed them as partisan power grabs that would not improve the lives of Californians.
“I still hope the Legislature will join me, and we can go to the ballot together with a bipartisan plan,” Schwarzenegger said in his speech. “But one way or another, with the people’s help, there will be action this year.”
The election promises to be an expensive bare-knuckles fight between the two most powerful lobbies in Sacramento: the business interests and Republican activists that have been filling Schwarzenegger’s campaign coffers all year, and the unions that are at risk of losing much of their political clout if the governor succeeds.
And herein lies the problem: many of Schwarzenegger’s ideas are sound ones but this fight is now turning into a fight between Republicans and Democrats. When that has happened in California in the recent past, the GOP has lost. So, in the end, this will be the ultimate test of the strength of Schwarzenegger’s political magic.
UPDATE: A USA Today timeline shows just how poorly Schwarzenegger has fared this year: from 60 percent approval in May 18, 2004 to 40 percent approval in May 17 of this year (with ONLY 30 PERCENT supporting the special election).
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.