New CNN Iowa Poll: Romney Now Leading, Paul Second, Gingrich Nosediving & Santorum

The seesaw verdicts of the polls continue in Iowa. The latest CNN poll in Iowa fits in with the new tone coming from the camp of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney: a seeming sense of relief plus a belief that their candidate will prevail in Iowa — and in the end. The new poll puts Romney in the lead, former House Speaker Gingrich fading faster then the impression a customer makes at Tiffany’s asking if they have $5 dollar jewlery and former Sen. Rick Santormum picking up support:

Did Newt Gingrich peak too early?

A new survey of people likely to attend Iowa’s Republican caucuses indicates that the former House speaker’s support in the Hawkeye State is plunging. And according to a CNN/Time/ORC International Poll, one-time long shot candidate Rick Santorum has more than tripled his support since the beginning of the month.

Twenty-five percent of people questioned say if the caucuses were held today, they’d most likely back Mitt Romney, with 22% saying they’d support Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Romney’s three point margin is within the poll’s sampling error.

My one complaint about the CNN headline: they didn’t include Ron Paul. It IS a news story that he is doing well, no matter what controversy swirls about his newsletter and no matter how unseriously the news media has taken him in the past.

The poll’s Wednesday release comes six days before Iowa’s January 3 caucuses, which kickoff the presidential primary and caucus calendar. The Iowa caucuses are followed one week later by the New Hampshire primary.

A new CNN/Time/ORC poll of likely primary voters in New Hampshire indicates that Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, remains the front-runner, far ahead of his rivals for the GOP nomination.

In Iowa, both Romney and Paul are each up five points among likely caucus goers from a CNN/Time/ORC poll conducted at the start of December. The new survey indicates that Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, is at 16% support, up 11 points from the beginning of the month, with Gingrich at 14%, down from 33% in the previous poll. Since Gingrich’s rise late last month and early this month in both national and early voting state surveys, he’s come under attack by many of the rival campaigns.

That is a MAJOR drop for Gingrich.

It seemed that when new baggage spilled out of Gingrich’s baggage-crammed closet, many voters were chased away.

Plus there is this: Romney seems to be hitting his stride as a candidate: more relaxed, good-humored. News that calls into question Gingrich’s assertions about his own conservative beliefs have offset for some voters their fears about Romney…in Iowa…for now…at least.

According to the survey, 11% are backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 9% are supporting Rep Michele Bachmann, and 1% are backing former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, who’s spending nearly all his time campaigning in New Hampshire.

Santorum is campaigning on a shoestring budget, but he’s visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties and has made a strong pitch towards social conservative voters, who are very influential here in Iowa on the Republican side. Wednesday Santorum was up with a new radio spot on Hawkeye State airwaves touting endorsements by social conservative leaders. His pitch may be starting to pay off.

Whether voters agree with him or not, Santorum has been consistent.

But is Romney getting too smug? It’s one thing to change your positions and say you haven’t. It’s one thing to try and define a past position that conservatives now reject as not being conservative as conservative. Just read Red State’s Eric Erickson:

This isn’t a flash back. This is today. Mitt Romney is again declaring the foundation of Obamacare, the individual mandate, “conservative.”

To be sure, it is conservative that one takes responsibility for their own healthcare. But the conservative solution is not to force Americans to buy a product. Forcing Americans, through penalty of law, into purchasing or refraining from purchasing a product is not and will never be conservative.

What’s conservative? Well, if the person doesn’t want insurance, don’t let them get out of paying their medical bills through bankruptcy. But forcing them to buy insurance? Not only is it not conservative, we can see in Massachusetts that health care costs have continued to go up as has the cost of government.

So not only is Mitt Romney’s plan not conservative, it does not even work.

Can Mitt Romney trying saying: “Oops..”?

UPDATE: Here’s some of Time’s Swampland’s take on it:

Romney now leads the pack with support from 25% of likely Iowa caucus-goers, while Paul boasts 22%, both posting a five-point gain since early December. While Romney’s lead in Iowa is tenuous, his continued strength across the board raises the possibility that the establishment front-runner could win his party’s nomination in a clean sweep.

Bolstering that possibility is the collapse of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who led in Iowa with 33% less than a month ago, but has seen his front-runner status disintegrate under a torrent of negative advertising and now claims just 14% support. Some of his voters have scattered, providing small bumps to Romney and Paul as well as Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Governor Rick Perry. But the biggest beneficiary of Gingrich’s collapse appears to be former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who’s rocketed into third place with 16%, a dramatic 11-point climb in three short weeks. Santorum now leads among born-again Christians, and is tied with Paul and Romney among self-described conservatives and Tea Party supporters. The surge by Santorum, who’s quietly made stops in each of Iowa’s 99 counties and won the endorsement of some of the state’s top evangelical leaders, only adds suspense to next week’s caucuses, the outcome of which remains incredibly unpredictable.