Test for Moderation’s Survival? Philadelphia’s Tim Holden Battles for Re-Election
by Scott Crass
Historically, north central Pennsylvania may be the last place in America where parochialism has trumped everything else. Situated just far enough from metro Philly to have forged it’s own identity, the region has the ambience of urban molding into cultural conservatism, and ivy league becoming blue collar.
This confluence of trends has created a late breaking primary fight which threatens to depose Democratic Congressman Tim Holden, a ten-term veteran, proven survivor, and quintessential moderate who hails from the southern part of this radically reconfigured Congressional district.
Had redistricting not been a factor, Holden wouldn’t have a re-election care in the world. Indeed, even when Pennsylvania Republicans gave Holden a district that was 80% new in December, most thought his longevity would spare him a serious primary. Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty passed. So did Lackawanna Commissioner Corey O’Brien. Other elected officials demurred as well. But one well-known figure from a substantial part of the new district, attorney Matt Cartwright, was not deterred. And just days before the April 25 voting begins, polling shows that Cartwright’s once longshot challenge appears to be paying off.
Putting the two side by side, it’s easy to make a comparison. To some, Cartwright may come across as a Paul Wellstone without the passion, and an Alan Grayson without the bombast. He sees his race against Holden as ”David vs. Goliath,” and talks proudly of hailing from the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.”
Holden has bemoaned partisanship from his earliest days in office. Once estimating that the House is composed of 70 liberal and 70 ultra-conservative members, he stated with obvious passion that “they need to be left behind.”
Indeed, Holden is one of the few Northeastern members of the House”Blue Dog” coalition. He voted for fellow “Blue Dog” Heath Shuler for Speaker after the Ds lost the majority. He opposes abortion, voted against the “Cap and Trade” legislation, and opposed a mine safety bill, because he felt it didn’t adequately address the anthracite mines that dominate the region. He has frowned on attempts to re-instate the ban on semi-automatic weapons. Holden’s has used his senior positions on the Agriculture and Transportation Committees to aid his constituents. He supported overturning the ban on gays in the military. But he did vote against the Affordable Health Care Act, and that may be causing Holden the most agita in the parts of the district where he is not known.
Outside of politics, Holden has carefully cultivated a “just one of us” image, a touch he has used since his time as Schuylkill County Sheriff. Gregarious and approachable, Holden interacts with crowds as if he is just one among them. In that vein, he noted early in his tenure that he is “not an elitist, not personally wealthy, and doesn’t just come around when I’m running for office.”
Cartwright has also portrayed himself as a “man of the people,” but from a different perspective. His law firm, Munley, Munley, and Cartwright, is among the most prominent in the Scranton area, and the fortune that he has made has been key to his resources against the long-time incumbent.
In the campaign,Cartwright proudly invokes FDR’s mantra. He boasted to The “Times Tribune” of his crusade against “huge corporations” and says his mission has been “fighting for the middle class against corporate greed, fighting for the most vulnerable against uncaring insurance companies.”
Cartwright has won the endorsement of Move-On League of Conservation Voters, the latter which ran an ad putting Holden’s face next to George W.Bush’s, citing the incumbent’s vote for Bush’s “tax breaks for big oil.” He has even sought to tie Holden to”Wall Street.”
Holden has responded with scores of endorsements, from Sen. Bob Casey to elected officials from even the new parts of the district. But he seemed slow to sense the seriousness of Cartwright’s challenge. It may be the fear of giving Cartwright more visibility that he has resisted calls to debate.
During his tenure, Holden has had two types of districts. His first, in the 90’s, fit him like a glove. Encompassing Schuylkill County and Berks (Reading), Holden’s moderate leanings and approachable manner fit in well. Holden’s second territory was not as hospitable. In fact, as Holden has taken pride in pointing out, it was drawn to beat him.
GOP legislators moved his district west, dropping Reading and throwing him into an area anchored by Harrisburg(Dauphin&Lebanon Counties), and Holden admits he thought long and hard about not going forward. This was fertile GOP territory and ten-term incumbent George Gekas was comfortably ensconced, often never having to break a sweat. But that ultimately proved to be his downfall.
Gekas struggled with modern campaign techniques, while Holden thrived from going door-to-door. In the end, he beat Gekas 51-49%, holding his own in the new areas, but earning a stratospheric margin from Schuylkill. Two years later, Holden turned back a challenge from Scott Paterno, son of the then venerable Penn State Football Coach, “Jo Pa.” His margin was 20%. and, he never faced significant opposition since. Enter round II of redistricting.
The expectation among Ds&Rs was that since Holden had thwarted GOP attempts to beat him in GP seats, he could have it. In turn, they gave him a seat known as a “vote-sink,” a consolidation of Democratic areas from other GOP leaning districts, to make them less competitive. Harrisburg and it’s suburbs are gone&Holden goes back east some and then north. Way north. He picks up just enough of Lackawanna Couny to get (Scranton), just enough of Luzerne County to get (Wilkes-Barre),as well parts of Carbon and Monroe County. The latter is divided in such a way that the portion not in the new district is shaped like a meteorite invading earth.
To add insult to injury, Holden still has Schuylkill, but the counties aging population has minimized it’s impact. And he no longer has his remaining portion of Berks. That means that roughly 80% of the district is new, a fact most credit with Cartwright appearing to surge into the lead.
PA-17 Is not entirely an ideological battle, though some may be tempted to paint it as such. Rather, it is a friends and neighbors primary where name recognition may hold sway. But if Holden does lose, it’ll be one more not-so-subtle signal that moderate officeholders are a dying breed.
If the primary comes down to idealism,Cartwright may prevail.But few can argue with straight faced that Congress is broken because of Tim Holden.
Scott Crass writes: “Punditry has long been my passion and I thrive on offering non-partisan commentary on upcoming elections with historical perspectives .From Maine to Maui, no election is too obscure and there’s not a character I don’t dissect. I call the races as I see them as I see them, even if it’s contrary to what I want to see happen. And for us political junkies and then some, it’s never too early. And if you can’t tell which side I’m on, I’m doing a heck of a job. Check out my analysis on twitter.com/crasspolitical.