Is Iran a kind of vampire — sucking on the current weakness of a seemingly-overextended United States to gain regional and international strength that allows it the chance to play the international brinksmanship game?
The word “brinksmanship” usually implies a kind of a posturing game like “chicken,” where where one side will pull back. The difference is that there are an increasing number of analysts who fear Iranian officials mean precisely what they say.
Boston Herald columnist Jules Crittenden, writing in Real Clear Politics, has a must-read post titled March Into Fall: Our Weakness is Iran’s Strength, where he looks at this issue. A few key excerpts:
The United Nations and certain European powers have shown themselves repeatedly to be more interested in appearances than results. In Iran, their great desire now is for talks, anything that might appear to be progress. To achieve this, they feel a further offering of economic incentives may be just the thing to prevent Iran from compelling them to introduce sanctions. Other powers, notably Russia and China, are more than happy to see the disintegration of any effort that threatens their long-term economic goals. Iranian nukes be damned.
What a marvelous position Iran has found itself in, to be able to openly call for destroying western nations, to demand their submission, to ignore the leading world body’s demands on the nuclear issue, and to be rewarded with entreaties to accept greater gifts.
Does anyone imagine bribing Iran will end its nuclear ambitions?
And, indeed, that is a question. It’s usually a question that doesn’t get an answer. People who question the long-term threat Iran poses to the world (not just to the United States) will usually then move on to argue other aspects of the issue. MORE:
On the nuclear front, the president and his allies must make it very clear that Iran faces severe consequences, to include a credible threat of military action — a prospect that generally spurs Europe into action, for better or for worse — and he must make it clear to European powers that they also will face consequences in their relations with the United States if they weaken.
In Lebanon, our Italian allies have done a remarkable job of shaming the French back into line on a French-sponsored peace plan. Ehud Olmert, criticized heavily at home and abroad for accepting that plan, is insisting that Iranian proxy Hezbollah hold up its end. Again, pressure must be placed on Europe, the United Nations and Iran directly, to ensure that the newly bolstered U.N. force in southern Lebanon does not remain a farce, and to force Hezbollah out of its position of dominance in Lebanon.
In Iraq, hardline Sunni leaders finally alarmed by what they have wrought are becoming interested in talking peace, and al-Qaeda is suffering heavy losses among its leadership and its ranks. Iran’s puppets there, the Shia militias, are a growing threat that must be brought into line, as violently and mercilessly as necessary. Again, pressure must be brought to convince Teheran of the error of its ways. Iraq’s democratic forces, growing stronger every day, must be given every opportunity to prevail if we want our efforts there to arrive at a satisfactory conclusion.
Read the entire piece.
One problem you can see on the horizon for George Bush in terms of his future mobility as both domestic policy maker and an international “Decider” grows bigger every day: his credibility gap.
News reports that the body count at the morgue in Baghdad has nearly tripled this month come amid official claims of significant progress in stabilizing Iraq. A CIA report says there has been no proof that Saddam Hussein was linked with Al Qaeda — undermining comments by Bush administration bigwigs in the run up to the war. (And please spare us the “they never really said it” malarky since it was at the very least implied very strongly, unless you insist on using “it all depends on what is is” as your guide. Even a loaf of whole-wheat bread knows what was said and implied, there are video and audio clips documenting it and polls show some Americans still believe Saddam had something to do with 911).
These factors contributed to Bush’s biggest problem when it comes now to proposing major commitments if he seeks support beyond Republican party partisans: there are many people who don’t entirely believe him anymore.
Democrats clearly now feel burned by the way national security has been used against them — feelings accentuated by the flap over the upcoming ABC docudrama “The Path To 911” which reportedly blames more of the pre-911 federal government managerial negligence on the Clinton administration than on the Sept. 10, 2001 Bush administration. So it’s highly unlikely George Bush will ever again get the kind of trusting support he got out from Democrats in the immediate aftermath of 911.
The motif of Bush’s presidency is that he has proven to be a “divider not a uniter.” Polarization is at near-mountainous levels while bipartisanship is now so limp that even political Viagra wouldn’t help.
So if Bush is greatly alarmed with the data he’s getting on Iran and decides to take military action, he will likely face a noisy, hostile opposition party demanding proof that any action taken was a last resort. Any justifications offered will then be greeted with prove-it-me skepticism by Democrats, many independent voters and be aggressively vetted by the media.
On the other hand, Iran and its leaders have spelled out quite clearly what their intentions are and how they view their country’s role in responding demands from the international community. Intentions? Not peaceful and not favoring stability. Role in responding? Tough luck, we’ll do it our way.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.