The first thing to be said about the Iraq Study Group’s report is that it is anticlimactic.
That is not a bad thing. Although the bipartisan group worked behind closed doors, its high profile but low key chairman, James Baker, gave it a very public face and there wasn’t any doubt about what its recommendations would be.
The second thing to be said is that although the ISG’s report is being described as a tough assessment and its recommendations are sensible, they are being made at a time when Iraq is devolving from civil war into chaos at a truly frightening speed and in that context they seem modest.
The report states the situation in Iraqi is “grave and deteriorating” situation, adding that:
“If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe. A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq’s government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al Qaeda could win a propoganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized.”
The ISG made 79 separate recommendations, the major ones being that:
* Most U.S. troops should be moved from combat roles into roles supporting the Iraqi army by early 2008, while not setting a specific timetable for a complete withdrawal.
* The U.S. threaten to reduce economic and military support if the Iraqi government fails to meet specific benchmarks intended to improve security.
* New diplomatic initiatives be opened with Iran and Syria in the service of helping shore up and sustain the Iraqi government and development of a comprhensive regional peace plan, including finding a solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.
The third thing is that there was little in the report to comfort President Bush, who has resisted the kind of major changes that the report recommends, notably talking with Iran and Syria.
The president said this morning that he takes the recommendations seriously, which of course is different than agreeing with them. It also remains to be seen whether he and the newly-elected Democratic Congress take to heart the ISG’s blunt warning that the Iraq mission will fail if they don’t work together.
Let’s hope so, but the reality is that war has been botched on so many levels that what happens in Iraq is substantially out of the U.S.’s hands.