A Newsweek poll provides a warning to the GOP about its base — and to the Democrats about overconfidence:
If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if you’re a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better. White Evangelicals are a cornerstone of the GOP’s base; in 2004, exit polls found Republicans carried white Evangelicals 3 to 1 over Democrats, winning 74 percent of their votes. In turn, Evangelicals carried the GOP to victory. But with a little more than two weeks before the crucial midterms, the Republican base may be cracking.
If something doesn’t give—and quick—Republicans will view 2004 as the good ol’ days. Fifty-five percent of likely voters in the new NEWSWEEK poll say they would vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who say they would vote for the Republican. That’s not surprising; the Democrats have been leading in the opinion polls for months. But the new poll suggests—from the leanings of bellwether voting blocs to voters’ priorities—that a possible Republican loss could turn into a rout.
So it’s all over? The Democrats can start their plans for taking back control of at one least house of Congress? WRONG:
But Democrats shouldn’t start measuring for the drapes in the Speaker’s Office just yet. Compared to the NEWSWEEK poll two weeks ago, taken in the aftermath of the Mark Foley Congressional page scandal, the Republicans seem to be closing the issues gap—at least on the issues where they have traditionally enjoyed greater voter trust than the Democrats. The Oct. 5 and 6 poll gave Democrats a lead on moral values (42 to 36), a stunning reversal of every previous poll. While Republicans have not retaken their lead on the issue, they have stopped their slide. In the new poll, 41 percent of Americans say they trust the Democrats more on values and 37 percent said they trusted the GOP more.
The bottom line is that political parties and their militants have faced shattering disappointments before. The reason: overconfidence, the failure to get out every single possible vote, a willingness to only believe “good” polls (polls that show them ahead) and to discount “bad” polls (polls that don’t show them as ahead or not ahead — usually dismissed due to bad “methodology” which is somehow never questioned in polls that show them ahead).
And in this election — more than ever — there are unforeseen events. The entire history of George Bush’s presidency has been of someone who has been defined by events and his role in responding to them (both good and bad).
But the larger issue of the Newsweek poll is that the GOP’s base is wavering. Even though Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman seems comfortably ahead in his race, could it be that the GOP is facing not just an erosion of Evangelical support but the exodus of “Reagan Democrats?” Note that many staunch followers of Ronald Reagan (and Barry Goldwater) are not enamored with this President or with the current GOP elite’s practicing definition of “conservatism.”
The bottom line: you may hear the fat lady singing…but she hasn’t yet sung.
SOME OTHER VIEWS:
If one considers the voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election, any significant defection on the part of the GOP base…whether that be by voting Democratic or just sitting out the election could lead to a huge Democratic victory. Keep in mind that back in 2004; early returns had Democrats convinced they were heading to victory. While the final results demonstrated that Democrats had succeeded in significantly boosting their voter turnout, the results also confirmed that the GOP had been able to turn out an even larger voter constituency…largely based upon the evangelical vote.
As we approach the November midterm, it looks like Democrats are at least as motivated as they were in 2004 and likely even more anxious to get out and vote to defeat the GOP. Any drop off in Republican turnout could prove disastrous if current Democratic voter enthusiasm holds. As I’ve thought back to the 2004 election, I recall one particular view that was expressed before the vote…and that was the theory that it would seem likely that if those who had voted for Al Gore also voted for the Democratic candidate (John Kerry) and only a few GOP voters defected, then it would seem that the Democrats might well defeat George Bush. I think it was a good theory but it failed to account for the ability of the GOP to turn out millions of new evangelical voters…enough so to overcome the theory as well as Democratic enthusiasm to defeat the Republican Party.
—Chris Bowers: “In particular, I am struck at how, as many predicted, the Republican cover-up of a child predator in order to hold onto a single House seat has not played well in the Republican base…Man, another 18-point lead in the generic ballot. However, unlike the 18-point leads back in August, this one is among likely voters, not registered voters.”
—Talk Left: “I agree Dems shouldn’t count their chickens before they hatch, but if I had to pick a phrase to describe my current assessment of the 2006 battle to take back Congress, it would be “cautiously optimistic.”
—Drinking Liberally: “The news keeps getting worse for the GOP every time a poll is taken. The stats posted below are from Newsweek and they are dreadful news for our State’s Republican rubber-stampers of the worst legislation ever written into U.S. law. Waaaaaahhhhhhhhh!”
—Flopping Aces: “Another week, another bogus poll. This one by Newsweek…But as anyone who follows polls knows, the demographics of who was polled is quite important to the final result. Take a look at who they polled.[GO TO LINK TO SEE]”
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.