There is something very interesting happening right now: Senators Levin – Democrat – and Warner – Republican – recently came back from a trip to Iraq and had some things to say about the surge. Certain newspapers and bloggers interpreted their words to mean that they – most notably Levin – believes the surge is working. Other bloggers argue the exact opposite. Since the two sides cannot possibly both be right, the question is who is right?
Let’s first take a look at their statement. Fox News quotes the two as follows:
We have seen indications that the surge of additional brigades to Baghdad and its immediate vicinity and the revitalized counter-insurgency strategy being employed have produced tangible results in making several areas of the capital more secure. We are also encouraged by continuing positive results — in al-Anbar Province, from the recent decisions of some of the Sunni tribes to turn against Al Qaeda and cooperate with coalition force efforts to kill or capture its adherents.
That sounds good, no?
But – still Levin argues that the troops should be withdrawn from Iraq starting in the next four months. The reason? (Think Progress): “The purpose of the surge, by its own terms, was to have the — give the opportunity to the Iraqi leaders to reach some political settlements. They have failed to do that. They have totally and utterly failed.”
In other words – if a military solution would have been possible, Levin would have changed his mind on the surge. However, since the final solution has to be a political one and since there is no progress made in that regard, he considers the surge as a whole to be a waste of time and resources (not to mention lives).
In other words – Think Progress is right. Levin believes that the military strategy is paying off in some regards, but it will not be enough.
Obviously Levin is right. The US can do whatever it wants to do, but as long as al-Maliki refuses to bring his country together, no real and lasting progress can be made.
Having said that, Sister Toldjah has a good point when she explains that “It makes no sense that he wants to start [withdrawing the troops], considering that in order to make political changes, the Iraq government will still need us to stay there in significant numbers for security reasons.” The surge is – obviously – not meant as political reconciliation: it is a military operation, aimed at oppressing the sectarian violence (and terrorism). Political progress has be made by politicians, not by the US army. For political progress to be made, military progress has to be made. I agree.
However, one can wonder how long it will take – for years we have heard “six months more.” When will the Iraqis start doing what they need to do? Another question that needs to be asked is what will happen once the US withdraws / the surge has ended? Won’t the terrorists simply come back? Or do the proponents of the surge believe that during the surge, the Iraqi army and police have to be made stronger so that when the US withdraws they can take over? Won’t that create a military society in Iraq with an angry population as a result?
Questions remain, but it is see interesting to see Democrats soften their tone a bit.
Cross posted at The Van Der Galiën Gazette.
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