Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), on of the few remaining vestiges of the liberal “Rockefeller” wing of the of Republican Party, appears headed for the political fight of his lifetime. But before he is even able to square off against a moderately popular Democratic challenger in this overwhelmingly “blue” state, he might have to face a well-funded challenge from the right in the Republican primary. David Freddoso has the scoop for Human Events online, a conservative weekly.
We report in this week’s Evans-Novak Political Report (sorry, no link, we’re too expensive) that Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (R.) will jump into the U.S. Senate primary against Lincoln Chafee (R.) next month — the date will probably be September 15. Laffey’s been holding off since May, but now he’s hired a campaign manager.
Laffey will be challenging Chafee from the Right. It’s questionable whether he would win the general election, but his odds are not significantly worse than Chafee’s.
Laffey is really crossing swords with the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the RNC by doing this. Elizabeth Dole and Ken Mehlman have been begging him for months not to run. Bad, bad news for Dole, who may preside as NRSC chairwoman over a loss of three or four Senate seats, no small part of it her own fault. This only complicates matters.
The Club for Growth, a major player within conservative politics, will likely go all out on behalf of Laffey. In 2004, the Club’s candidate in the Pennsylvania Republican Senatorial primary, Rep. Pat Toomey (now the head of the club) nearly defeated the moderate (and so-called “RINO” — Republican in Name Only) Arlen Specter, holding the three term Senator to just over 50 percent of the vote. One could argue, however, that in the case of Specter, the primary challenge from the right actually helped him as it made him appear more moderate and mainstream during the general election — just look at the Kerry-Specter signs plastered around Philadelphia last October.
While the possibility remains that the Laffey challenge would greatly aid Chafee in the general election, Chafee is in a much more tenuous spot than Specter was last year. Specter had the full backing of both the White House and his junior Senator, Rick Santorum, who is extremely popular among Pennsylvania conservatives. Chafee doesn’t have a similar benefactor in the state.
Additionally, the Republican majority at the time only stood at 51-48-1, so the GOP could not afford risking the seat (had Toomey won the nomination, the Dems would have been favored in the general). With the GOP now holding a 55-44-1 margin in the Senate, they have much more breathing room — thus much more of a reason to support Laffey.
The possibility remains that Chafee will be able to weather this storm. At this point, I wouldn’t be willing to put money down either way, however.
originally posted to my political blog at Basie.org
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.