Photo by (co-blogger) Paul Silver who visited Cuba twice: click on image in order to see it in its original size
Karen DeYoung reports for the WaPo that Castro is “very ill and close to death” according to DNI John Negroponte:
“Everything we see indicates it will not be much longer . . . months, not years,” Negroponte told a meeting of Washington Post editors and reporters…
The Cuban leader did not show up as anticipated at a Dec. 2 national celebration in Havana scheduled to commemorate his 80th birthday and the 50th anniversary of the Cuban revolution. In a brief speech at the event, Raul Castro imparted no message from his brother but said that Cuba is willing to open negotiations with the United States “to settle the long U.S.-Cuba disagreement.”
In rejecting the offer this week, Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon told reporters that the Bush administration will deal with Cuba’s Communist government only when it shows a commitment to democracy. During the period of uncertainty under Raul Castro, Shannon said, “the regime has actually become harder and more orthodox and is not in a position to signal in any meaningful way what direction it will take post-Fidel.”
Congressional advocates of easing long-standing U.S. sanctions against Cuba are scheduled to fly to the island today for a three-day visit exploring potential policy changes under Raul Castro. The bipartisan group of 10 is the largest congressional delegation to visit Cuba.
One of the main questions for many is… how to deal with Castro’s death and will Cuba fall into chaos? Many Cubans fear Fidel Castro (and man / some worship him of course), will they do what Raul wants them to do, or will all hell break loose at the moment Fidel passes away?
Raul should know that he must change the policies if Fidel dies… Fidel was – whatever one thinks about him and his policies, on this we can all agree – a strong leader, one in a kind… if he dies, the only way for Raul and the other communists to remain in power, is to moderate their policies.
What will it be: slow change or revolution?
Or (seems quite unlikely to me to say the least)… neither (at least in the short term)?
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