It sounds as if the Bloomberg for President bandwagon boomlet, which was all the rage among the political talking heads, writing-with-authority newspaper columnists and ever excited bloggers has now fizzled — even though New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his aides continue to give signs that he could jump in at the last minute.
The reasons for the apparent fizzle: an apparent conclusion by Bloomberg — ever the cooly-assessing businessman — that a run would not be cost-effective in terms of the probability of his election plus some other factors such as a messy sex discrimination lawsuit against his company. The New York Times:
Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s defection from the Republican Party in June seemed to confirm what many people had long suspected: that despite his protestations to the contrary, the mayor was serious about running for president and was taking steps to mount an independent bid.
But now, despite an elaborate effort to transform Mr. Bloomberg into a global political brand, that excitement seems to have fizzled, as he has publicly retreated from the idea and an opening in the field of candidates has not materialized. Associates say that although Mr. Bloomberg has not completely closed the door on making a run, he seems unlikely to join the race, and is not interested in ensuring someone else’s victory or simply making a point.
“The orchestration of the rumor of the prospect of his running for president and the platform that has given him would overwhelm P. T. Barnum,†said Robert Zimmerman, a public relations executive who is one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s fund-raisers. “At the end of the day I don’t think Mike Bloomberg wants his legacy to be that he was a spoiler.â€
After all, why have two “spoilers”? There are already rumblings that third party perennial candidate Ralph Nader — whose campaign in 2004 took money from Republicans who hoped to siphon votes away from Democrats — is thinking about running once again. (In case you forgot, Nader ran- in 2000 telling voters that it would really make no difference if Democrat Al Gore or Republican George Bush was elected since both parties were basically the same).
The Times correctly notes that Bloomberg’s candidacy would be a long-shot due to his unique political style and the way the American political system is set up with the electoral college:
Part of his appeal to New Yorkers — that he is unfettered by the usual political allegiances and is willing to speak his mind — could also create trouble for him in a national campaign. An opponent could seize upon the kind of remark Mr. Bloomberg made recently at Cooper Union in Manhattan in an interview with Tom Brokaw, comparing the United States in Iraq to the British during the Revolutionary War to paint him as far left, or unpatriotic.
There are other challenges, including a federal sexual discrimination lawsuit filed recently against his company, Bloomberg L.P.
“This latest legal brouhaha wouldn’t enhance his prospects,†said Douglas A. Muzzio, a professor at the Baruch College School of Public Affairs.
Still, according to the Times, Bloomberg and his aides are acting as if they are getting ready to get the pieces in place to enter the race, if he should decide to do so. At recent appearances he sounds as if he is a candidate. But he may simply be morphing into another version of the 2007 Al Gore or 2007 Newt Gingrich: someone who makes a big media splash “flirting” with running but who really won’t in the end.
One notable quote in the Times piece:
And Mr. Bloomberg has told associates that he studied the 1992 presidential campaign of Ross Perot to see how much a bid in 2008 would cost.
Mr. Perot drew 19 percent of the vote as an independent, and no electoral votes.
“Polls are showing that people are dissatisfied with the two parties,†Professor Muzzio said, “but are they willing to overthrow their party affiliation for an independent candidate?â€
If Bloomberg is looking at the history of Perot and that moment in political time, he won’t jump in. Perot ran at a time when it was clear an overwhelming number of Americans were highly-dissatisfied over their choices in the election. Perot started running and polls showed he might actually have a chance to squeak in, but when he pulled out, his campaign deflated and never regained its previous footing when he decided to re-enter the fray. Perot is literally someone who was handed a moment in history — and lost it.
So far in the 2008 race rumblings about the need for a third party are coming from the religious right, which threatens to run a third-party candidate if former Mayor Rudy Giuliani gets the nomination. Democrats don’t seem to hate any of their candidates, although each faction of the Democratic Party has its favorites.
If Bloomberg wanted to run, he’d probably have to do so early in the race — and so far there are no indications that will happen. So, if you had to place money on it, it appears as if a) he won’t run and b) if he does, his chances of winning will be as likely as Ross Perot’s…after Perot pulled out of the race and got back in when it was too late and the damage to his image was done.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.