The New York Sun‘s Josh Gerstein writes what some talking heads in television have begun to say in passing: Arizona Senator John McCain’s star is (for now at least) on the ascent:
Senator McCain of Arizona is emerging as an early favorite for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 as a result of a shift in the issues dominating the American political landscape, according to political analysts.
Intensifying public concern about the war in Iraq, the prospect of protracted corruption trials in Washington, and renewed qualms among Republicans about federal spending are all putting wind into Mr. McCain’s sails while setting back most of the senator’s rivals for the nomination.
“If Iraq and foreign policy and national security and deficit spending are important issues, that will benefit people like McCain,” the publisher of a leading political newsletter, Stuart Rothenberg, said.
Also: McCain has adeptly walked a political tightrope since losing the GOP nomination to President George W. Bush in 2000. He managed to maintain a kind of “brand name” excitement and charisma, overall, despite having lost the nomination and, although he broke with Bush on some key issues, since then he mended enough GOP fences (including campaigning for and with Bush in 2004) to be a viable GOP option. MORE:
A Republican political consultant with national campaign experience said looming decisions about when and how to withdraw American troops from Iraq should boost the prospects of Mr. McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. The senator has vocally opposed calls for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, but he has also clashed with the White House over a measure he sponsored to prohibit Americans from engaging in torture.
A former aide to the senator, Marshall Wittmann, also said he believes the stars are aligning for a McCain candidacy.
“My sense is there’s a significant amount of momentum shifting to Mc-Cain within the Republican Party over the past few months,” said Mr. Wittmann, who served as the senator’s communications director for two years before quitting last year to join the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.
Observers inside and outside the Republican Party have said that the party has fallen into disarray in recent months after a strong showing in last year’s elections. Despite comfortable majorities in both houses of Congress, party leaders have faced problems passing basic budget legislation. Even Republican stalwarts conceded that the GOP’s showing in state elections this year was poor. And President Bush’s approval ratings are at an all-time low, due in large part to worries about Iraq.
“The party is in a crisis at the moment,” Mr. Wittmann said. “I think the party is increasingly looking for a leader who has popularity and can broaden the party.”
Yet another, non-polite, question is this: after all that is happening, all of the political bumbling, fumbling and just downright poor political decisions, could it be that by 2008 many Republicans will, in the privacy of their ballot boxes, want to “clean house” in the GOP and get someone in place in their party who is not so closely tied to the Bushes? If so, McCain more than Rudy Giuliani would be the one.
But he doesn’t face smooth sailing — not by a longshot:
Still, not all of Washington’s political prognosticators are convinced that Mr. McCain has what it takes to win over the GOP primary electorate, which is far more conservative than the general public. “Conservatives hate him,” a political analyst, Charles Cook told reporters recently.
Mr. McCain has riled some on the political right with his votes against tax cuts and his steadfast support for further federal regulation of money in politics. He also has quarreled publicly with some leaders of the religious right, such as the Reverends Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson.
Earlier this month, a popular conservative radio host, Rush Limbaugh, denounced Mr. McCain as a “Republican in Name Only,” or Rino. “They used to be called ‘Rockefeller Republicans.’ It may be better to start calling them ‘McCain Republicans,’ the McCain wing of the party,” the radio host said disdainfully as he skewered GOP lawmakers such as Mr. McCain who oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Which means McCain could probably be the BEST candidate to WIN the general election and is a bit too inclusive in his views for Rush and some of the Republicans who rely on Limbaugh for their political views and value system. AND
Mr. Rothenberg noted that Mr. McCain agrees with social conservatives on many hot-button issues, although he rarely talks about those subjects in public.
“Abortion, guns, gay marriage, home schooling – McCain may be right on some of those issues, but they’re not at the top of his agenda,” Mr. Rothenberg said. He said candidates hoping to win the Republican caucuses and primaries don’t have to toe the line on all such issues but “have to pass some sort of minimal litmus test.”
Mr. McCain’s reputation as a reformer could be a boon as Washington grapples with high-profile criminal trials stemming from the CIA leak inquiry and a broad probe of corruption by lobbyists.The senator also has been making friends by working closely with fiscally conservative House members in an effort to cut pork from the federal budget.
One open question is whether voters in the presidential race might have qualms about Mr. McCain’s age. If he wins, he would be 72 when he takes office.
Oh, pish-posh. The last time we heard this was when it was used against Ronald Reagan. Age would indeed be a factor used against McCain by his hardcore foes, but not by most Americans. They’ll go for him or reject him on other grounds.
One factor, Gerstein writes, is the Hillary Clinton factor: if she is the Democratic nominee and polls show only McCain can beat her, that may bring skeptical GOPers (except perhaps Rush and Sean, whom we can expect to demonize McCain if it looks as if he has a serious chance for the nomination and if a candidate more or less backed by the Bushies and present GOP establishment emerges) around. But then you have to take into account The Giuliani Factor:
Some allies of Mayor Giuliani, another potential Republican candidate in 2008, believe that he may stand to gain even more from a renewed focus on Iraq and the perception that the cultural issues deemed so critical to the outcome of the 2004 race could be shifting to the back burner.
There are even some indications that the religious right might consider Mr. Giuliani more palatable than Mr. McCain. Earlier this year, one of America’s best-known Christian conservatives, Rev. Robertson, said the former mayor “would make a good president.”
During the same ABC interview, Rev. Robertson made clear he has no affection for Mr. McCain. “McCain I’d vote against under any circumstance,” the “700 Club” host said.
And then there’s the Unknown Factor: Could it be that by 2008 many GOPers will want a totally fresh face — someone NOT tied to the Bushes, not tied to past political primaries and someone not known as a “maverick” like McCain or perceived as being suspiciously too far left such as Giuliani?
No matter what, though, it appears as if in terms of sound-bites and influence in the Senate — his power grows as the Bushies’ Congressional clout sags — John McCain will be a political key force over the next few years.
But, in the end, could it be that he’ll be more of a kingmaker than the king?