Hamas, after a meeting with the Palestinian Authority, has decided to stop firing mortars and rockets into Israel, something it had been doing since Wednesday. There’s speculation that the violence was nothing more than a Hamas attempt to show exactly how powerless Abbas is in controlling the peace process and the overall security situation, and in that regard it was completely successful. Sure, Fatah asked Hamas to stop being naughty, and Hamas has complied, but that does not mean it will continue to play nice well into the future. As soon as policies Hamas finds offensive are enacted, it can simply disengage itself from actual policy debate and return to firing rockets at Israelis, even if it carries a large portion of the parliament in the upcoming elections. Abbas is all for allowing Hamas’ continued electoral participation despite the group’s desire to carry its own weapons, which is appalling. A government cannot have dual centers of armed power, as that’ll only cause instability and make policy disagreements a little more severe than simple verbal squabbles.
It’s easy to understand why Abbas wants to fold Hamas into the Palestinian government. The group has wide-ranging support at the local level primarily due to its unparalleled civil society and social welfare programs, and there’s always the possibility that the stress of expanded governance will force some sort of moderation upon the group. However, the possibility will always exist that Hamas, after getting a taste of power and the responsibility that follows, may decide to act unilaterally through violence claiming the mandate of the Palestinian people while it derails the peace process with mortar fire. Disarming Hamas before allowing it full parliamentary participation would have been ideal, although such an action would have most likely forced the group to go completely rogue and move in active opposition to everything the Fatah would attempt.
It’s obviously a complicated matter, and I hope that Abbas is correct in his hopes that by its participation in the electoral process Hamas will moderate its actions even further. I believe it has already, even, but these recent attacks successfully proved that Hamas can move as an independent actor whenever it wishes. It’s really up to the Palestinian people themselves, as they’ve recently showed renewed hope and support for Fatah; only public opinion can truly box Hamas in by way of the vote, punishing it through the electoral process for any sort of over-the-top rebellion, combined with a needed sort of social disapproval that makes violence-as-the-answer completely unacceptable. The climate is not yet right for that, but if Abbas continues to see successes in the peace process it’ll go a long way in defeating the militant mindset and de-fanging Hamas’ armed wing.
Cross-posted to Digital Dissent