A new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows shows the Democratic primary races in Ohio and Texas are “too close to call,” although Obama seems to have gained slightly in Ohio.
But, in essence, Ohio remains a see-saw stalemate:
(See an earlier post HERE that details an Ohio Poll that has Clinton ahead by 9 percent. Remember: poll results vary. GO HERE to see.)
The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows. As voters in these two big states prepare to wrap up their voting tomorrow, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other.
The poll shows that Obama has held his lead in Texas, but Clinton has made inroads from the last tracking poll. Current: Clinton 44, Obama 47. Last: Clinton 43 Obama 47.
In Ohio, it shows a slight gain by Obama: Clinton 45, Obama 47. Last Clinton 47, Obama 46.
These polls suggest that (if this poll proves accurate) unless there is some big surprise one way or another, Obama could win one of these states but even if he doesn’t it is unlikely that there will be to be some massive victory in either state for Obama or Clinton. Press reporting has a narrative theme and right now the subtext is: Hillary Clinton on the rebound but does she have enough time?
In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.
…In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has moved him ahead of Clinton.
John Zogby writes:
The Democratic race has been neck-and-neck in both states, but it has been interesting to watch the volatility under way among Democrats in eastern Texas, which is the swing area of that state. There, one day Clinton would be leading, and the next, Obama would have the edge. Whoever wins east Texas on the Democratic side will win the state. But still, it is important to remember that, because Obama holds huge leads in the Dallas area and in Houston, even if he were to lose the state, the split of delegates will be roughly even between he and Clinton.
Clinton needs to get a solid win in one of these states (many analysts say both of the states) to announce that she’s back in a comeback. The history of these primaries so far indicate they’re filled with surprises for pundits and embarrassing days for pollsters. But from these numbers, at least, there could be close elections in each states — with the outcome depending on the get-out-the-vote “ground war” on election day.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.