Today, Christian Maronite MP and Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel, Jr. was assassinated in a Christian suburb of East Beirut. In light of last year’s assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri, and the ongoing pressure by the so-called “March 14” coalition of Christians, Sunnis and Druze to create a tribunal to investigate the Hariri murder, this new assassination raises troubling new questions for Lebanon.
The immediate history of Lebanon is troubling enough. After Hezbollah helped force Israel out of the south of Lebanon in 2000, the nation turned toward Syria and demanded that it, too, vacate the country. Syria dragged its feet, and its former client, Rafiq Hariri, became one of the strongest advocates for Syrian withdrawal. After Hariri was assassinated in February 2005, most Lebanese blamed Syria. The subsequent Cedar Revolution marches convinced Syria that its time was up.
Ominously, however, Hezbollah held massive counter-demonstrations to “thank” Syria for their “protection” over the years. Syria’s Shi’ite Allawi President Bashir Assad had helped Iran funnel weapons and money to Hezbollah, and stood as a bulwark of opposition to the US and to Israel. In the March 14 elections following Hariri’s assassination, a new coalition of anti-Syrian forces took over. But Hezbollah also gained significantly in this election. One ironic effect of the March 14 coalition, then, was the recognition of Hezbollah power in the rapidly growing Shi’ite South. The Shi’ites now comprise 45% of the Lebanese population, and like their brethren in Iraq, they see this moment as the best opportunity to gain power commensurate with their numbers. For them, that means “forgiving” Syria for any role in the Hariri assassination and forcing new elections that would increase Hezbollah’s influence. It also means that this is a chance to hold a new census and reapportion seats recognizing the rising Shi’ite population – Christians have vigorously opposed a new census because their own population has dwindled.
Of course, since the March 14 elections, Lebanon also suffered through the month-long war with Israel, during which the Lebanese briefly closed ranks behind Hezbollah, but made it abundantly clear that when the Israeli bombs stopped dropping, the Sunnis, Christians, and Druze would blame Hezbollah for the destruction.
The anti-Hezbollah feeling among the March 14 coalition, and the demands of Hezbollah to break the “unity” government and call new elections that enhance Hezbollah’s power, placed the country in a political crisis. Hezbollah members resigned last week, and planned large demonstrations to bring down the government. It is in this context that one of the leaders of the Christian Maronite community was assassinated. Gemayel Jr. was one of the most vociferous opponents of Syria and Hezbollah.
But there is a much more troubling, earlier context of this assassination. Pierre Gemayel Jr.’s father was the man who created the Christian Maronite Phalange Militia, and who played a dominant role in the country for decades. When Palestinian gunmen attempted to assassinate him on April 13, 1975, Phalange militiamen retaliated by murdering 30 Palestinian workers on a bus. This event triggered the 15-year civil war in Lebanon. Alas, Pierre Gemayel Jr.’s father nearly faced the same fate as the son. And in the earlier case, catastrophe ensued.
In Lebanon, past is always prologue. Will the Lebanese revert to civil war again, only this time with new alliances and new external forces? Or will the Lebanese reject violence, as they did after Hariri’s assassination, and redouble efforts to create a peaceful multi-sectarian democracy? This is a very difficult time in the history of Lebanon.