Larry Sabato and his staff predict a major defeat for Republicans at all levels of government.
Campaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm “Mo”
Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let’s rephrase the question this way: when’s the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?
We bet it’s never happened before, and it certainly hasn’t happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.
Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true! ETC…
MORE:
Overall Outlook
The Democrats will have to TRY to lose this election. Yes, they’ve had a lot of experience in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sen. John Kerry is doing his best to provide two of those election years in a row (Brilliant remark, John, absolutely brilliant, proving why you lost in ’04 and why you’re not going to be the Democratic nominee again in ’08).
We are probably headed for a familiar period of divided government, just we had in 1947-48, 1955-60, 1981-92, 1993-2000, and June 2001-2002. Six Presidents have experienced divided government since World War II, including George W. Bush via the Senate for 18 months. Life goes on. Americans in many ways like to build in more checks and balances to the Founders’ model of separation of powers. Dividing power reduces the potential for abuse of power, or so the theory goes, and since many Americans aren’t crazy about either major party, the idea of letting them fight it out between the branches, or between the houses of a bicameral Congress, appeals to millions of citizens.And fight they will. A short and maybe nonexistent period of “bipartisan working together,” which may be measured in hours or minutes, will be followed by a two-year campaign to break the deadlock one way or another in the elections of ’08….
SOME COMMENTS AROUND BLOGTOPIA:
as Sabato points out, there are extremely few Democrats playing defense this year.
AND:
the only numbers that matter are the ones reported by elections officials next Tuesday
Myself, I’d quibble with his outcomes in 2 or 3 races, but this is the closest I’ve seen any longtime analyst describe what’s apparent to me. He said 27 House seats. I said 39 two weeks ago, and when I complete my final analysis, I think there’ll be more. But otherwise, I think he’s nailed it perfectly. TN is the only Senate seat likely to evade the Democratic tsunami.
Virginia political scientist, and renowned political pundit, Larry Sabato says the Republicans are in more trouble, well, than anyone in American history.
I know I’m always goofin’ on the goofy Inside-the-Beltway rearview mirror prognosticators like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato. But that doesn’t mean they don’t sometimes stumble on some good answers. My problems with their work go much deeper– like how their cosnervative (as in overly cautious, not as in partisan or fascist) POV leads clueless organziations like the DCCC to target badly– and dishonestly.
Anyway, today I just want to point out that even these guys are now convinced– finally– that the magnitude of the wave about to hit the Republicans is huge. Sabato just put out his Last-Minute Predictions; they’re not what Rove wants to see.
Could this be the year that Democrats go undefeated?
Dafydd at Big Lizards: A Tale of Two Turnouts
We can only get to 27 Democratic captures in the House and 6 in the Senate if Professor Larry Sabato believes that Democrats are elated and will show up in record numbers, while Republicans are depressed and will stay home in droves. His mental turnout model has the Democrats, not the Republicans, with the better ground game, such that they win races where they are only 1 or 2 points up now, and even win races where they are 2 or 3 points behind.
By contrast, as I have cautioned many times, the Big Lizards mental turnout model is just the opposite: I see Republicans not as more enthusiastic than Democrats, but more enthusiastic than the pollsters’ turnout models, meaning that the polls are slightly biased towards Democrats. Similarly, I believe the GOP GOTV is superior to the Democratic GOTV, and the former will do a better job of turning out party faithful. I believe these two points will lead to a general 3% – 4% “unexpected” bump for the Republicans (which will be portrayed by pollsters as an “election-eve rally”)… and at the moment, looking at the polls of today, that would lead to a Republican loss of about 12 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate.
All we can say for sure at this point is that Larry and I cannot both be right: one of us is — or both of us are — completely, utterly, catastrophically wrong.
Everybody wins: Republicans get to do a little more swift-boating, and Democrats get to win the mid-term elections and impose some accountability on the guy who started this fiasco and all the incompetent, arrogant, constitution-shredding demagogues and weaklings who enable him every day. I can’t wait for Tuesday.
Webb’s momentum is building so quickly, it’s hard to keep up here. So here are some quick hits – they may turn into full diaries later, if the wave doesn’t swamp us all!
– Virginia political expert Larry Sabato rates this race still a toss-up, but is predicting that Webb wins the race…The Rothenberg political report does the same, calling this race a “lean takeover.”
UPDATE: Rothenberg’s ratings are out as well. Some Rothenberg analysis is posted at Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire.