The polling news isn’t getting any better for President George Bush in light of some positive news for the White House, plus the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court:
WASHINGTON – It has been weeks since Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast; since gas prices began spiking to record highs; and since Cindy Sheehan, whose son was killed in Iraq, held her antiwar vigil outside President Bush’s Texas ranch. But, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the fortunes of the Bush administration and the Republican Party have not yet begun to recover.
For the first time in the poll, Bush’s approval rating has sunk below 40 percent, while the percentage believing the country is heading in the right direction has dipped below 30 percent. In addition, a sizable plurality prefers a Democratic-controlled Congress, and just 29 percent think Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers is qualified to serve on the nation’s highest court.
“Any way you slice this data, I think these are just terrible sets of numbers,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
So it’s going to be difficult (as is the custom with partisans on both sides who see poll numbers not going their guy’s/gal’s way) to dismiss this poll as a sinister biased poll. MORE:
The poll shows that Bush’s approval rating stands at 39 percent, a new low for the president. In the last NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, which was released in mid-September, 40 percent approved of Bush’s job performance while 55 percent disapproved. In addition, just 28 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, another all-time low in Bush’s presidency.
Strikingly, much has happened in the time between those two polls — many of them seemingly positive events for the White House. The president delivered a prime-time speech from New Orleans, in which he promised to rebuild the Gulf Coast. He also made several more visits to the region, to examine the damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Furthermore, he saw the Senate confirm John Roberts to the Supreme Court, and he nominated Miers, his White House counsel, to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor.
Indeed, this poll (and others if they continue this way) suggests:
- Bush’s numbers may fluctuate up or down a point but the general trend is downward — a loss of support and confidence in Bush.
- His clout may be waning. Members of Congress read polls (duh) and if they’re faced with doing things and taking stands to save their own political skin and Bush’s, guess whose skin they’ll opt to save? This may explain some of the continued GOP backlash on the Miers nomination.
- If these poll numbers continue they could pose additional problems for Bush in terms of foreign affairs. He will be perceived as weak and on the way out, versus strong and enjoying widespread support.
- The numbers could go down EVEN MORE because there are two huge potential problems down the pike: (a) indictments in the Plamegate case (news reports — which are all speculation at this point — mention White House political maven Karl Rove, Vice President Dick Cheney’s aide Scooter Libby and even Cheney himself as people who could conceivably face legal problems) and (b) monster heating bills this winter, which will infuriate many Americans, even if there’s a valid explanation for why prices are going up.
Bottom line: you get a sense that it’s going to be a very unhappy three years in the White House, no matter what choices they make. What can happen to drive Bush’s numbers up? Even if there is another terrorist attack, Bush has angered so many people that the kind of unity and trust in the aftermath of 911 is unlikely…even if the worst happened again.