The latest on Iyad Allawi's plan to re-take Iraq via Juan Cole:
Al-Hayat reports that Iyad Allawi, a secular ex-Baathist Shiite who leads the Iraqi National List (25 seats in parliament), visited Kurdistan on Saturday. He is attempting to convince the Kurdistan Alliance to join his new coalition in parliament. Allawi has said that his list will leave the 'national unity government' headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
Allawi's list is small and he is deeply disliked by most of the religious Shiites that dominate parliament. I can't imagine that he can actually form a government given the present distribution of seats. But al-Hayat reports that Allawi was accompanied on his trip to Kurdistan by none other than US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, which the daily read as a sign of US support for dumping al-Maliki and trying to install Allawi as Prime Minister. (Allawi served as interim prime minister in 2004, having been appointed by the US and UN for this purpose. He is an old CIA asset.)
Simply nothing will come from this; it's mostly a non-story. What is worthy of note, however, is that Amb. Khalizad is joining Allawi on this ill-begotten sojourn, which highlights the Bush administration's inability to give up on installing a secular government in Iraq. But, also, it suggests that the administration is no longer interested in working with the religious Shi'a parties. Through association with the US, PM Nouri al-Maliki's al-Da'wa party is certain to lose the premiership and any true power in the cabinet in due course. The other options the US has currently are the SCIRI, who are considered too close to Iran, and the Sadrists, which is not exactly an option worthy of consideration. Cozying back up to Allawi, then, is a desperate act, the political equivalent of a Hail Mary in American football. It will certainly fail, and even if it proved a successful maneuver in this case the results would still be less than helpful.
The administration installed Allawi as PM following Baghdad's fall -- an ex-Ba'athist, secular Shi'a who is easily identified as an American cat's paw due to his extensive past dealings with the CIA. He didn't retain -- strike that -- actually find any deeply-seeded grassroot support during his time as a completely ineffectual premier. Despite that, Amb. Khalilzad is accompanying Allawi to talk the PUK and KDP into joining the secular Iraqi National List, as if that alone will bring about sudden Western-style democracy. Allawi's parliamentary list is going to fall apart in the next elections, replaced by Sadrists. There's no way, even if this entire scheme goes forward, that Allawi represents a bulwark of stability. Why would Jalal Talabani or Massoud Barzani even consider Allawi a reliable ally, let alone a safe bet? One does not oppose the religious Shi'a and survive politically, perhaps not even literally. Even if Allawi is somehow able to wrest control of the Iraqi government from al-Da'wa -- somehow side-stepping the SCIRI, Fadilla, and the Sadrists in the process -- the US would find itself fighting a true multi-pronged insurgency where Ba'athists, extremist Sunnis, and, the kicker, re-marginalized Shi'a take to the streets in bloody revolt.
There's this belief within the administration that the initial goal for Iraq is still attainable, that a US-friendly, completely secular, completely liberal Iraqi government is possible. The one way that would be possible is if Allawi was installed again, Sistani killed, Sadr killed, Hakim killed, and the whole of the Iraqi Shi'a population somehow frightened back into their tribal hovels never to peek out again. Basically, Saddam minus the Stalinist perversion to cause trouble for the West, particularly the US.
The only answer is to back out and force Iran into handling the situation directly to avoid an escalation. Iran can force the religious Shi'a into boxes and bring about needed compromise on federalism, oil, and -- most importantly -- re-Ba'athification. But the US must be willing to talk to Iran directly and bring to the table the requisite amount of carrots and sticks. Fat chance that will happen under this administration. Regardless, I am working on a paper currently in the form of a memorandum to the president that suggests this and all the requisite steps required to make it happen. Perhaps it'll show up here or elsewhere one day soon.
Justin Delabar is a graduate student of international relations and is in the midst of working on a thesis proposal looking at how the Iraqi refugee crisis may fuel rampant Islamic extremism in Syria and Jordan. By day he is a web and print production manager and attends way too many meetings. His personal weblog is The Digital Diplomat, where he writes when time permits.