Maybe they don’t like him as much as the most critical thing in the Jewish religion (Chinese food), but there are are signs President George Bush has made some inroads to Jewish voters — and by that we don’t mean paths to gated communities in Florida.
According to the Los Angeles Times:
Before the election, some analysts predicted that Bush would make substantial gains among Jews because of his strong support for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who met with the president Monday at Bush’s Texas ranch.
But the initial Edison/Mitofsky National Election Pool exit poll had found that Jews preferred the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, over Bush by 74% to 25%. The Los Angeles Times exit poll had found an almost identical 74% to 26% split among Jews.
The new study, conducted by the Solomon Project, a Washington-based group encouraging civil involvement by the Jewish community, reexamined the results by factoring in hundreds of Jews that the National Election Pool surveyed in state exit polls but did not include in its original number. After that recalculation, the study concluded that Kerry’s percentage was slightly larger than originally reported, at about 77% to 22%.
So where’s the news? Here the “nut graph” part of the story:
According to Mellman’s surveys, Jews who attended religious services weekly split their votes evenly between Bush and Kerry, while Kerry amassed big leads among those who attended less often.
That mimics a powerful trend among Catholics and Protestants. Frequency of church attendance has become one of the strongest predictors of voting behavior, with those who worship most regularly leaning Republican and those who attend less often voting more Democratic.
Mellman’s surveys provide the most tangible evidence yet of that pattern spreading to Jews.
Bottom line: a crack in a reliable Democratic constituency that could be enlarged. And now we wonder: how will the Terri Schiavo controversy and verbal attacks on the judiciary play with Jewish voters? Will it be a wash or negate these gains?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.