Congress’ approval rating is heading so far south that the Democrats in charge may soon smell the magnolias.
The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows a 75 percent disapproval rating, guardedly good news for the Democratic Party itself and generally lousy news for the Democrats in charge of — and serving in — Congress:
A year ago, a similar poll found the numbers to be 28 percent approval, 63 percent disapproval.
“The big issues of the day just don’t seem to be being addressed,” said Sarah Binder, a political science professor at George Washington University who studies Congress. “The issues that matter most to people — the economy, health care, the environment and the larger war in Iraq — it is so difficult for Congress to move on those issues that I believe the public looks and says, ‘Why aren’t they doing anything?'”
Republicans will argue it’s because the Democrats are more interested in making political statements than actually working for solutions. Democrats will argue that Republicans — with the White House’s veto backing — have a strategy to nix everything they try to do on the war and other matters so they can run against a “do-nothing Congress” in a copycat campaign patterned after the come-from-behind President Harry Truman.
The Democrats’ problem is that they are already distrusted by some Republicans, hated by another segment of Republicans and are also now exasperating their party’s left wing which expected big changes after 2006. But other Democrats point out the Demmies didn’t win enough in 2006 to override a veto or scuttle GOP attempts to short-circuit their legislative moves.
Does this mean voters are ready to sweep aside the Democrats in 2008 and put Republicans back in? Not necessarily but there are clouds gathering on the political horizon:
Approval of congressional Democrats stands at 43 percent, twice that of Congress in general. The flip side, however, is that Democrats who control Congress still face a disapproval rating of 51 percent, a figure that has increased 11 percentage points since March. Video Watch a report on the new job approval numbers »
“The ratings for Congress overall have been mired in the mid- to low 20s for several months, but for most of the year, Americans have had a positive view of the Democrats in Congress,” said CNN polling director Keating Holland. “That’s not true any longer — this poll is the first time we have found majority disapproval for the Democratic leaders’ track record since they took control of Congress.”
Holland also notes that these numbers will make it increasingly harder for the Democrats to prevail on issues.
So what does it mean? It means anything can happen, says CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider :
“No one is betting that the Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate,” he said, “but when anti-Washington sentiment is as high as it is now, politics is very unpredictable.”
The results in from a Field Poll taken earlier this month aren’t terrific for the Democrats, either:
The California Field Poll has released another part of it’s current poll taken earlier in October and in many ways the results are an echo of what this venerable poll showed in August.
California registered voters disapprove of Congress by a margin of 64% to 22%–statistically about the same as the 66% to 20% disapproval registered in the August 24, 2007 poll by Field, and within the margin of error of the poll numbers in this release of 4.1%.
Field does not ask voters why they are dissatisfied with Congress as an institution. What is interesting is the partisan divide, and the numbers are quite telling throughout the survey, especially as we see the numbers as to how Democrats, Republicans, and “Non-partisan/others” break down as to the performance of Democrats and Republicans in Congress.
Democrats by a margin of 24% to 58% disapprove of Congress, perhaps a bit lower than in August when the numbers were 27% approval and 55% disapproval. Republicans are more harshly critical of Congress by a margin of 20% to 70%–this is actually a statistically significant improvement since August when it was 14% approval and 79% disapproval. The non-partisan others are disapproving by 22% to 63%, which more approving than in August when they were disapproving 65% to 17%.
Several analysts have pointed to disappointment in the war as the main reason for the low grades from the public: many Democrats themselves are giving the Congress thumbs down. They feel frustrated because, in their view, in terms of war policy, the 2006 elections meant little substantive change.
Can the Democrats regroup? Amid these danger signs (even Majority Leader Harry Reid has a dangerously low approval rating now in his own state and politics IS local) there are reports that Democrats are considering ways of heading in a new direction. Whether that is in terms of policy or tactics, is still not totally clear.
But the Democrats still have several advantages: George Bush remains a hugely unpopular president and there are no signs yet that the Republicans running for the GOP 2008 Presidential nomination seek to woo votes from the center rather than running yet another election where the Republican game plan is to motivate its conservative voters to vote by pushing conservative hot-button issues.
Additionally, many GOPers have announced retirements so the Republicans will have more seats to defend — something not easy in any year, let alone a year when the “brand name” has taken an imagery hit.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.