With contradictory polls, a zillion weblogs, talking heads on TV who talk as if they know it all (New Hampshire suggested something else) where can go you for INSTANT and constantly revised clarity on who’s up and who’s down? Political scientist Steven Taylor’s Toast-O-Meter.
Taylor has a jewel of a blog called PoliBlog which focuses on the issues and seldom blasts any blog or blogger. His focus is on the art of political science.
And, indeed, “The Toast-O-Meter” is info at a glance. Taylor asks:’If [political scientist Larry] Sabato can use a crystal ball, why can’t I use a toaster?” The toast-o-meter tells you who looks like he/she is the best thing since fresh, sliced bread and who is baking nicely or burning into unappealing ruined toast. It’s slogan “Tracking The Road To The White House One Slice At A Time..”
A joke? HARDLY. Taylor isn’t your stereotypical blogger, someone who’s actually an unabashed activist (predictably) defending “their” candidate and bashing the other. He’s a stand-back political scientist. And the Toast-O-Meter gives you in abbreviated form the impressions of someone whose full-time business is political scientist. Each version traces candidates’ movement up and down the “toast” scale, based on the last one.
For instance, the last one was the “Motor City Edition” written before the Michigan primary. Visit the Toast-O-Meter and he’ll tell you whose “dough is on the rise,” who’s “crumbly.” Mitt Romney? “The Heat Is On.” John Edwards? The heat is on. Ron Paul? “Beyond toasted.”
But when you look at the toast-o-meter, if you’re truly a political junkie, you need to look at some of his other posts. Start from the top and scroll down (and see some VERY detailed earlier Toast-O-Meters). For instance, on a poll showing Arizona Senator John McCain ahead in South Carolina:
This is a multi-day rolling tracking poll, and therefore does not capture Romney’s Michigan win and whatever effect that might have. However, as I noted last night, I have a hard time seeing Michigan’s choice being a big influence on South Carolinians. Beyond that, it would take quite a leap for Romney to make up 16 points on McCain. The real question for SC is whether Huckabee can manufacture a win there.
And also: will SC convince Fred that he’s toast?
It’s the no-nonsense impression of a political scientist….quick to read…in a bed of non-nonsense posts..a MUST for those handicapping the 2008 political donkey/elephant race.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.