A new poll shows Americans overwhelmingly want a change from what the Bush administration is giving American on several fronts — and the desire cuts across party and non-party lines:
One year out from the 2008 election, Americans are deeply pessimistic and eager for a change in direction from the agenda and priorities of President Bush, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Concern about the economy, the war in Iraq and growing dissatisfaction with the political environment in Washington all contribute to the lowest public assessment of the direction of the country in more than a decade. Just 24 percent think the nation is on the right track, and three-quarters said they want the next president to chart a course that is different than that pursued by Bush.
The “right track” component isn’t terrific news for the Democrats, since they in terms of numbers at least control both houses of Congress. And there are other political storm clouds that seem to be gathering on the political horizon as well:
Overwhelmingly, Democrats want a new direction, but so do three-quarters of independents and even half of Republicans. Sixty percent of all Americans said they feel strongly that such a change is needed after two terms of the Bush presidency.
Dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq remains a primary drag on public opinion, and Americans are increasingly downcast about the state of the economy. More than six in 10 called the war not worth fighting, and nearly two-thirds gave the national economy negative marks. The outlook going forward is also bleak: About seven in 10 see a recession as likely over the next year.
The overall landscape tilts in the direction of the Democrats, but there is evidence in the new poll — matched in conversations with political strategists in both parties and follow-up interviews with survey participants — that the coming battle for the White House is shaping up to be another hard-fought, highly negative and closely decided contest.
And herein is the bad news for Democrats since at least some Democrats have seemingly assumed that just being the anti-Bush or anti-GOP would be enough. It’s clear that it won’t be:
At this point, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), the Democratic front-runner, holds the edge in hypothetical match-ups with four of the top contenders for the Republican nomination. But against the two best-known GOP candidates, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), her margins are far from comfortable. Not one of the leading candidates in either party has a favorable rating above 51 percent in the new poll.
In other words, this will probably be yet ANOTHER election when a large part of the American public feels that when they vote they have to hold their nose and vote for the less offensive candidate.
The poll can’t be good news to Clinton, her camp or to Democrats who now seem poised to nominate her because it indicates she has a hard sell ahead:
And while Clinton finds herself atop all candidates in terms of strong favorability — in the poll, 28 percent said they feel strongly favorable toward her — she also outpaces any other candidate on strong unfavorables. More than a third, 35 percent, have strongly negative views of her, more than 10 points higher than any other contender.
In other words, she’ll have to work to erase these negatives at the same time that Republicans with all of their info/communication resources are working hard to accentuate and perhaps increase them.
The poll also finds that while Bush’s approval rating is at an all-time low and many Americans blame him for the country’s polarization, Congress’ approval rating is lower than Bush’s.
What does this likely mean?
It means that despite the poll numbers and the media/weblog perception that GWB the 2008 election is very much much up for grabs. And given the poll numbers about candidate negatives, the U.S. is likely to again face another campaign dominated by personalities, attacks and attempts to define and demonize the other side and drive up its negatives. Issues will be debated but the game will likely be fought — and won — on the sleazier aspects of American 21st century politics.
New York Times columnist Frank Rich, in his most recent column, suggested that a mix of 911 and Iran could make the election one in which the GOP could triumph again. His column elicited variety of reactions.
In essence, all of the conventional wisdom, talking-head and blog predicting this and that is interesting and entertaining — but there are many variables now in play — including what action, if any, the administration will take against Iran…and what actions the regime in Tehran will take to force the administration and politicos to respond.
And then there are the variables no one penciled in. What about events in Pakistan? Will this story take a new turn? How will it influence American policy? How will that influence American debate? Will something happen (or not happen) there that could mean a new factor needs to be calculated in? And what about that potential “wedge” issue that seems to be looming and increasingly coming into the forefront…..immigration?
Bottom line: the GOP isn’t out of the running yet, although it has fewer incumbents running in Congress than it thought at this time last year. And the Democrats can’t depend on “being the anti-GOP” or “anti-Bush” to be enough. Both parties are going to have to work to sell voters on their party — and un-sell voters on the other. And the voters at this point are not happy political consumers.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.