A top general said the worst case scenario is to be prepare to keep the number of soldiers in Iraq for some four more years.
The news that there is (somewht distance) light at the end of the Iraq war tunnel comes in an interview with AP’s military writer:
In an Associated Press interview, Gen. Peter Schoomaker said the Army is prepared for the “worst case” in terms of the required level of troops in Iraq. He said the number could be adjusted lower if called for by slowing the force rotation or by shortening tours for soldiers.
Schoomaker said commanders in Iraq and others who are in the chain of command will decide how many troops will be needed next year and beyond. His responsibility is to provide them, trained and equipped.
About 138,000 U.S. troops, including about 25,000 Marines, are now in Iraq.
“We are now into ’07-’09 in our planning,” Schoomaker said, having completed work on the set of combat and support units that will be rotated into Iraq over the coming year for 12-month tours of duty.
Schoomaker’s comments come amid indications from Bush administration officials and commanders in Iraq that the size of the U.S. force may be scaled back next year if certain conditions are achieved.
Among those conditions: an Iraqi constitution must be drafted in coming days; it must be approved in a national referendum; and elections must be held for a new government under that charter.
Schoomaker, who spoke aboard an Army jet on the trip back to Washington from Kansas City, Mo., made no predictions about the pace of political progress in Iraq. But he said he was confident the Army could provide the current number of forces to fight the insurgency for many more years. The 2007-09 rotation he is planning would go beyond President Bush’s term in office, which ends in January 2009.
Note, though, that these are contingency plans. EVENTS (here and abroad) will determine the pullout date. And you can’t predict events.
Will there be a new and brutal wave of insurgency? Will the anti-war movement that seemed to pick up steam around Cindy Sheehan expand and become more of a nationwide force? Will that generate a counter movement — a support-the-war movement? How will that influence policy and the image of America?
Will GOPers get feedback from constituents indicating support or lack of support for the war — and how will that influence policy and any pull-out timetable?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.