A specter of Cold War suddenly appeared today as President Bashar Assad’s desperate murders of his own people took a turn towards a dangerous standoff between a US-led coalition on one side and Russia and China on the other, going beyond a civil war in Syria.
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton told a meeting in Tunis of Assad’s opponents it was distressing to see two permanent members of the Security Council using their veto while people were being murdered. “It is just despicable and I ask whose side are they on? They are clearly not on the side of the Syrian people.”
Earlier, President Barack Obama said the U.S. and its allies would use “every tool available” to end bloodshed by the Syrian government. It was absolutely imperative for the international community to “send a clear message to President Assad that it is time for a transition. It is time for that regime to move on.”
Clinton’s branding of Russia and China as despicable is extraordinary language. Both countries say they have vital security interests in the Middle East and do not agree with the US vision of democracy. While abhorring Assad’s killing spree, they placed vetoes to prevent a repetition of what happened in Libya. There, the West persuaded Russia and China to support a Security Council resolution to use force to prevent a massacre of civilians by Muammar Gadhafi. They felt betrayed when in their opinion NATO went beyond the UN mandate to depose his regime by unilaterally intensifying aerial bombing and commando operations on the ground.
Moscow and Beijing fear that NATO interventions are a backdoor to US hegemony using the protection of civilians as a low cost pretext to overthrow unfriendly regimes or harm the interests of Russia and China. For example, the bombing of Libya did not cost a single NATO life fallen in combat. Since France and Britain flew most of the sorties, they gained considerable expertise in such campaigns, which the US has directed in the past with an iron fist. That makes NATO a more formidable force capable of operating outside allied territories without placing excessive burden on the US.
Now, the Syrian situation is turning ugly. United Nations investigators answering to the UN Human Rights Council have already accused Assad and his top commanders of war crimes and asked for prosecution in an international court. They did so without visiting Syria. The Tunis meeting asked for international recognition of the extremely fragmented and amorphous Syrian National Council, comprised largely of exiles and Kurds. Saudi Arabia, known for brutally repressing dissent at home, is leading a group pressing the West to arm rebels in Syria. Turkey is planning to provide safe havens along its borders and perhaps arm Syrians for cross border strikes, which could ignite a full-scale civil war and a regional war.
In this inflammable mix, the US and Europe are taking off the gloves against Russia and China on Syria despite growing economic ties. They are causing further irritation in Russia and China by accusing them of breaking sanctions against Iran, a long-time Syrian ally.
This is dangerous because China would lose face very seriously if the West won this round of naked pressure on Beijing and Moscow by successfully deposing Assad. The more so, since this is the first time China has taken such a clear and early stand against the West on a major Middle East issue. Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which is already chafing under US pressure close to its borders in Georgia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Ukraine, would also seek retribution. Neither will forgive the West for humiliation over Syria.
Tragically, the Syrian people fighting for room to breathe may end up in a prolonged domestic war of attrition as their country becomes a proxy for a new cold struggle between the West and a Russia/China/Iran axis.