Today, the big political moment has arrived: the 2008 Presidential race now enters political world “prime time.”
Only, this year we’ve had to sit through a seemingly endless array of pilot episodes before prime time even began.
Labor Day is indeed the start of the silly season political race season. And if you take stock, both parties seem on track to nominate feisty candidates, some clear favorites have emerged, two possibilities (one more likely than the other) are waiting in the wings and one party is notably more upbeat than the other.
If you take stock, you get this:
THE DEMOCRATS: After a somewhat unsteady start, New York Senator Hillary Clinton appears the Democratic favorite even with her widely perceived high negatives. The reasons: slick debate appearances, skillful answers, solid funding and a tough campaign organization. Senator Barack Obama at first skyrocketed but seems to have leveled out. Has he peaked? Senator John Edwards has staked out distinctive political turf — but will he (again) be voters’ favorite second choice? And rumors (perhaps wishful thinking?) persist about Vice President Al Gore (who insists he is not running).
The Democrats’ dilemma: find a way to satisfy the progressive base that clamors for a quick end to the war without falling into what some warn is the trap of taking a position that the GOP can use to make the Democrats appear weak on military and security issues. Good news for the Democrats: the polls still show Americans sour on the war.
Toughest trick for the Democrats: how to satisfy its progressive base (particularly the ones who want to purge the party of those who go along with the White House on some votes) and not lose voters who ARE sympathetic to the DLC — voters who dislike the Republicans’ job performance or polarization but are not fans of filmmaker Michael Moore and activist Cindy Sheehan.
THE REPUBLICANS: After a rocky start, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani seems to be fulfilling his long-predicted potential as a long-predicted GOP front runner. Likely reasons: his 911 aura, his skills (rusty at first) on the stump and a solid campaign organization. Arizona Senator John McCain’s campaign is now operating mostly on life support, the Senator’s charisma and the Senator’s ego. Massachusetts’ former Governor Mitt Romney is coming on strong with a slick if gaffe-prone campaign but there are continued signs that some Republicans may balk at him due to his religion.
The Republicans’ dilemma: How to keep the base and not repudiate or insult President George W. Bush but not appear to offer “Bush 44” for 2008. GOPers must cater to their conservative base (just as Democrats must cater to their progressive base) to win the primary. But Republicans now face a double whammy come election: being punished for being too close to George Bush and being rejected by independent voters who are turning thumbs down on Republicans in polls in increasing numbers.
Toughest trick for the Republicans: How to distance themselves enough from Bush and offer a “wide stance” (ideologically speaking, that is) while not having social conservatives stay home.
And attention paid to national politics (and to weblogs) will be a lot more as of today. Via CNN:
“Think of this as prime time. It’s sort of been off-Broadway. Now, this is the real thing,” says CNN Senior Political Correspondent Candy Crowley.
“In the past, Labor Day has been the traditional kickoff to the campaign, but the 2008 race for the White House really began the day after the 2004 presidential election,” chimes in CNN Political Editor Mark Preston, adding that now “each and every campaign stop counts. Most of the candidates will be spending their time in the key early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.”
And, because of that, just about all of the presidential candidates are out on the trail this long holiday weekend, reaching out to voters and hoping for headlines.
One question CNN raises: will history repeat itself in the race for the GOP nomination?
Giuliani took over the top position in the national polls from Arizona Sen. John McCain at the beginning of the year, and he’s held the top spot ever since.
In the modern primary era, the Republican candidate in the top spot the September before the primaries has won the nomination. But there are questions about whether that will hold this time around. Giuliani is a moderate Republican whose views on crucial social issues differ from conservatives who dominate the Republican primaries.
“The punditry and the reporters in general, the politicos, have always had a hard time looking at Rudy Giuliani and his moderate-to-liberal social views and seeing how he can fit into a primary where the conservatives vote. Nonetheless, the Giuliani people think that what has happened in this election cycle is that people are far more interested in security and they view that as the strong point,” says Crowley.
But then there’s the Fred Factor.
Has actor and former Senator Fred Thompson (reportedly working out hard each day at a gym reportedly because he believes it’s vital to look and be fit to run — which means Al Gore ought to forget it this year) blown it by waiting so long to enter the fray?
Have GOP voters had time to adapt mentally to a President Giuliani? Thompson’s supporters say he isn’t too late and his timing is masterful. Others (including some who supported him earlier) think he is too late and now has virtually no leeway for any error since he must hit every note correctly in record time.
But a major cloud is now looming over the GOP: the Bush administration.
And columnist Robert Novak reports it is having an impact:
As measured by offices held, Republicans have been in much worse shape during my half-century of reporting in Washington. The party was a mere remnant after the Democratic landslides of 1958, 1964 and 1974. But never have I seen morale so low. While Republican support for an unpopular war has remained remarkably strong, almost all the non-war news during the dreary August recess has been bad for the GOP. The hope is that the eventual elevation of a presidential candidate will revive the party’s spirits.
The week before Labor Day, when nothing of importance was supposed to happen, brought bad news even as it appeared nothing worse was possible.
Novak (who has excellent GOP and White House sources) rattles off several big problems for Republicans:
1. The resignation of Idaho Senator Larry Craig:“If so many people knew Craig was an accident waiting to happen, why was he not eased out of office? How many other examples of possibly scandalous behavior are known but hidden?”
2. Virginia Senator John Warner’s announcement that he won’t seek re-election. “Republicans privately estimate that this is one of four Senate seats they will lose, giving Democratic leader Harry Reid a real working majority.”
3. “Rep. Rick Renzi, facing an FBI investigation, announced he would not seek a fourth term in a highly competitive northern Arizona district that could go Democratic.”
4. “Most of the dwindling contingent of Republican governors have abandoned conservative principles to embrace the Democratic-sponsored extension of SCHIP (State Children’s Health Insurance Program) to people who are neither children nor poor.”
He notes some of what we’ve covered on Giuliani and Romney and ends his piece this way:
Past candidates have succeeded in pointing to corruption in Washington, but always by the opposite party. The Republican Party’s next leader faces a more complicated problem.
Another complication:
The report on the “surge” in Iraq will soon come out. If the report is, as expected, largely positive, it will likely result in essentially a stalemate of the existing political scene. People against the war will reject it and question its veracity. People who strongly back the war will say it proves the surge is working. Some Republicans who are nervous and seem ready to jump ship may balk (for a while).
But anything short of a turnaround in the status quo for the Republican Party in terms of war support will likely be a big and increasing handicap in 2008.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.