Depending on how you look at it, political polls (particularly in Campaign 2008) are snapshots and/or see-saws — but new polls out of Pennsylvania indicate Senator Hillary Clinton’s lead over Senator Barack Obama in their epic battle for the White House is seemingly shrinking:
If the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania were held Tuesday, April 1, Hillary Clinton would defeat Barack Obama by 12 percentage points, according to a recent SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and three other Pennsylvania TV stations across the state.
UPDATE: A new Rasmussen poll shows Obama has now cut Clinton’s lead in half — so that it’s now Clinton 47% to 42%:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point lead a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.
…Obama recently received a key endorsement from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey and has also spent more on television ads than Clinton. If Obama is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State, it would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama currently leads Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, while an Obama victory could end the nomination battle, Clinton remains ahead in the state and recently demonstrated her ability to finish strong in the Ohio and Texas Primaries.
More on the NBC poll:
However, the poll showed Obama gaining ground in the Keystone State, particularly in cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and among older voters, men and conservative Democrats.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Clinton is down two points and Obama is up five, with Clinton’s previous 19-point lead cut to 12, the survey found.
According to NBC10.com, the movement has mostly come from male voters:” Clinton had led by five points but now trails by seven — a 12-point swing to Obama.”
Can men in Pennsylvania be THAT impressed with Barack Obama’s bowling?
Meanwhile, this poll once again affirms Hillary Clinton’s most loyal constituency:
Among women, Clinton’s lead remains largely unchanged. Among voters ages 50 and older, Clinton had led by 26 points and now leads by 22. Among voters under 50, Clinton had led by 12 points but now leads by two, a 10-point swing to Obama.
What’s going on? Most likely several factors:
(1) Obama has not written the state off and is campaigning not just with his typical events, but trying to broaden his image with events such as bowling. LOUSY bowling…but it is bowling. These are high profile media events. Just as Senator John McCain got lots of publicity with his Straight Talk Express tours, and Bill Clinton and Al Gore got lots of ink and air time with their bus tour, Obama’s tours and large crowds are getting media coverage — free publicity. Yes, it’s a gimmick….but it works since it gives the press something to cover besides the same stock speech — plus lots of photo and video visuals. Just look at all of the free publicity and image polishing John McCain got out of this trip to Iraq and Europe.
(2) Obama has begun altered the way he speaks to crowds to try and be more appealing to the state’s large segment of beset working class voters.
(3) Clinton may be suffering now from the “long campaign gap.” MSNBC’s First read explains:
It’s been three weeks since the last primary (Mississippi on March 11), and it’s three more weeks until the next primary (Pennsylvania on April 22). That gap appears to be hurting Clinton this week in the same vein that the five-week gap between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday in 2000 hurt Bill Bradley when he had nothing to point to after narrowly losing New Hampshire that year: With no primary to fight, the candidate in the lead gets to look stronger and more insurmountable than perhaps he or she would have had there been a primary or two in between. Clinton is dealing with this constant should-she-stay-or-should-she-go drumbeat because there’s nothing else to point to right now; there isn’t even another debate for another two-plus weeks.
(4) Obama’s financial advantage may be beginning to show — with the real “kitchen sink” strategy by Obama’s ability to flood the market with advertising. First Read again:
Another advantage that Obama holds right now is money. The Clinton campaign is maintaining that its cash flow is good, but just asking: What happened to those constant Clinton announcements a month ago that they were bringing in $1 million-plus a day online? And how is it that Obama outspent Clinton 5-to-1 on TV last week, per TV ad analyst Evan Tracey? Obama spent $2 million on ads in Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina, compared with Clinton’s $400,000 in Pennsylvania.
CAUTIONARY NOTE: By now it’s trite to say it, but let’s do it anyway. Polls can change on a dime. The key is whether there is a trend. Clinton will need a large, convincing win in Pennsylvania since pre-vote expectations have been that she will run away with the state. A 5 point margin won’t do. This is ONE poll so the question becomes: is this the beginning of a trend? But could the final debate prove to be a make-or-break — tilting the contest inexorably towards one of them?
UPDATE II: For blog reaction go HERE.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.