North Korea has brought the international community to the brink of war. Either it must be punished or Washington, its allies and friends have to eat humble pie.
That may happen because American military power is useless in this context. The US could destroy North Korea utterly but South Korea would suffer extensive destruction from the North’s conventional missiles. Worse, thousands of American soldiers might die on South Korean bases before leaving their compounds.
North Korea has just a handful of modern missiles. The rest of its military is run down and the population has little love for the dictatorship. But within the war’s first few days, the North’s few modern weapons could wreak havoc on South Korea.
The rest of its military may fight Americans to a standstill if they enter without extensive support from South Korea and Japan. Those allies are reluctant to fight.
The only real winners in the near future are American weapons salespersons, who are already filling order books for anti-missile systems and other sophisticated defenses for South Korea and Japan.
Even a limited surgical strike on North Korean nuclear sites and missile silos could bring massive retaliation from the North against the South, which is a vital ally. The crippling of that ally could force the US to leave the region allowing China to obtain hegemonic power.
If South Korea is lost, Taiwan would be next in line. The only way to stop China would be for Japan to step into the breach and defeat, or at least stymie the march of Chinese power. That would require a major war with the Western allies fighting alongside Japan.
For these reasons, North Korea is being brazen. It might yet force the White House to shuffle away from confrontation. Almost all major countries are against its nuclear device but there is very little they can do to punish it meaningfully, whether through the UN or separately.
China and Russia are already shying away from severe UN sanctions, not to mention military action, against North Korea. Western Europe is notorious for its foot shuffling in such situations. Only Japan is truly worried but a US-Japanese coalition is not enough to halt North Korea.
This confrontation is another example of the futility of current American policies. The core of those policies is to “keep America strong�, continuously strengthen raw US military power and flex muscle. The goal is to leave no doubt about America’s willingness to use military power to create a world order based on Washington’s views about peace and stability.
Even when America talks and persuades, its process of “diplomacy with all options on the table� is predicated on fear of US military might. Not much thought is given to next steps if fear is defied.
In this election season, American voters cannot escape responsibility for their government’s policy choices. In the world’s eyes, they share responsibility for their government’s use of fear to coerce others. They should not be surprised when other countries acquire more deadly weapons to deter America and study ways of retaliating in the US homeland and against its allies.
Unlike the people of most other countries, Americans do have the freedom to use polling booths to force different choices upon their government. How American democracy uses its power around the world has consequences for other peoples. If US voters continue to support politicians who want others to fear America, we may be headed to a real world war in the not too distant future.
The behavior of North Korea and Iran are early steps in that direction. They are willing to face “serious consequences� to deter US military intervention.
The only ways to restrain and eventually neuter their hostility are through direct engagement and negotiation with the US. The White House will not do that unless American voters give it the marching orders.