The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll suggests President George Bush, a little more than 6 months after his re-election, is skating on thin political ice — so thin that it could quickly shatter if several things go wrong.
There is very little good news in this poll for GWB and the Republicans. In fact, it indicates the majority of voters don’t like the President and Congress’ choices of issues — and that voters are beginning to blame Bush and the GOP instead of the Demcrats. To wit:
Overall, Bush’s 48 percent job approval rating was essentially unchanged from the 47 percent rating he received in a late-April poll. And there was growth in the proportion of people who said the economy was doing well: 44 percent, up from 37 percent in April.
But the public took a generally gloomy view of the White House and Congress. A plurality said Bush is doing worse in his second term than in his first, and 58 percent said he is not concentrating on the things that matter most to them — the worst showing Bush has had in this measure in Post-ABC polls.
Congress fared no better. The proportion of the public disapproving of the legislative body was at its highest since late 1998, during President Bill Clinton’s impeachment. More people said they would look at a candidate other than their sitting representative than at any point in nearly eight years. For the first time since April 2001, Democrats (46 percent) were trusted more than Republicans (41 percent) to cope with the nation’s problems. But at the same time, favorability ratings for the Democratic Party, at 51 percent, tied their all-time low.
A total of 1,002 randomly selected adults were interviewed by telephone June 2 to 5 for this Post-ABC News poll. The margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus three percentage points.
The poll also found disapproval or division when it came to Bush’s performance on several other recent, high-profile issues. One-third of those surveyed approved of the way Bush is handling federal funding of embryonic stem cell research, while 55 percent disapproved. The public was divided on the president’s handling of judicial nominations, with 46 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving. And half said they were opposed to drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a proposal backed by Bush and being debated in Congress.
But the most striking trend identified by the survey was the spreading impatience over Iraq and national security matters. While six in 10 were confident that the United States was not violating the rights of detainees at the military base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Americans were more skeptical that the government is protecting the rights of U.S. citizens at home. Only half said Americans’ rights were being adequately protected, down from 69 percent in September 2003.
Several things are striking when you read this poll…particularly if you look at the issues Bush ran on.
(1) Basically, without a Bob Shrum-(mis)managed John Kerry on the scene, the more people see Bush NOT running against anyone, the more displeased they seem to be with his performance on issues and choice of issues.
(2)This is a highly polarizing presidency. Perhaps the most polarizing ever. People often point to Lyndon Johnson’s presidency as one that divided the country. But the biggest bone of contention was over the war. Or, they point to Richard Nixon’s. But the biggest bones of contention there were the lingering war issue and issues surrounding Watergate. This presidency is marked by a host of issues that divide the country — and Bush has either not found the person on the other side to help him forge a consensus or isn’t trying to forge one (which would mean serious efforts at compromise). It certainly seems as if the latter is the case.
(3)It’ll be a long haul until 2008 for the White House which shows little sign of backing off from the issues and political style that seem to be steadily turning Bush’s poll numbers into the good ship Titanic.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.