To get a real feel for which way the economy is headed, imagine if the things analysts and government officials have been saying about the economy of late were applied to your personal financial situation.
For example, these experts say that after falling off a cliff at the end of last year and the start of 2009 the economy has finally bottomed out. Visualize that in your own personal life. You’ve just fallen off a cliff and are now bottomed. You’ve hit the ground, in other words, and can’t fall lower. Does this seem like a reason to smile?
Many experts in recent weeks have noted that reports from institutions like banks have “beaten expectations.” The thing is, though, if you set expectations low enough you can’t help but exceed them. Again, consider this notion from a purely personal financial perspective. You thought by now you’d be living on the street and hustling passersby for spare change, but that hasn’t happened. Not yet anyway. Things haven’t quite come to that. Feeling upbeat in consequence?
And then there’s the whole “glimmer of hope” business, which for those old enough to remember has an eerie resemblance to the light at the end of the tunnel Lyndon Johnston and his advisors were always seeing during their great Vietnam adventure. We have more than 300 million people in this country, in three times zones, and literally millions of enterprises doing everything from loaning money to growing radishes. Even a government analyst can detect some signs of better times in this extraordinary mix. In like manner, you or I or anyone else can find some glimmer of hope in the worst of times in our personal lives. No reason to cheer about that, however.
Frankly, I’m disgusted by the forced happy talk that’s been coming from Washington and Wall Street in recent weeks and months. The Paulson II policies being pursued by the Obama Administration are better than the original in the sense that’s there’s a real stimulus included that helps us all, not just a save-the-bankers’-bacon component. But economically speaking, things in this country continue to get worse and worse. That’s not a pleasant truth to have to mention but it is the truth. And as long as Geithner and Bernanke and Summers are at the economic helm, this is likely to drag on, and on. and on, and…