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Posted by on Apr 21, 2010 in Places, Politics | 0 comments

Prime Minister Clegg ?

To be fair probably not.

But the recent surge of the Liberal Democrats in the UK elections has raised a number of eyebrows on both sides of the pond. Normally the campaigns are between the Conservatives and the Labour party with the LD’s acting as the distant 3rd party.

A recent poll had the Conservatives in 1st place with 33% followed by the Lib Dems at 28% and Labour at 26%

Another survey put the Lib Dems on top at 33%, followed by the Conservatives at 32% and Labour at 26%.

It is unlikely that the Lib Dems will win control, the election districts seem to be drawn to favor Labour, then the Conservatives and then the LD’s. If you try the election simulator on the BBC for example, and give each party an overall majority of seats

Labour needs just about 34% of the vote to win control

Conservatives need closer to 39% of the overall vote to win control

Lib Dems need almost 43% to do it.

Of course this varies depending on how the other parties do and also reflects that not every party is running in every seat, but you get the idea. Indeed if you give the LD’s 35%, the Conservatives 34% and Labour around 23% then you get a result of 281 Cons, 183 Labour and 157 Lib Dem.

So a first place finish by LD could still end up with 3rd place finish in seats.

The bigger issue is will they hurt Labour and improve the Conservative showing or (as seems more likely) will they actually help Labour and create a hung Parliament with no overall control and even a shot for Labour to remain in government ?

You can learn more and have some fun with election simulations at the BBC