Will wonders never cease? Israel finally has composed a government with a coalition between Likud and the Blue and White party avoiding a 4th election. As with many things in Israel this agreement was cobbled together on kind of an ad hoc basis without paying much attention to its long term consequences.
Bibi Netanyahu and the Likud will assume the initial leadership positions taking the role of Prime Minister along with a majority of the Cabinet. Theoretically, Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White party, will become Prime Minister on November 17, 202, 18 months down the road. Anyone who knows Israel will understand 18 months is an eternity and it is unlikely that the agreement will stand, as written.
While this coalition agreement was expected since neither of the major parties could put together enough Knesset votes to form a majority. There are two primary implications of this coalition government. First, by naming Netanyahu Prime Minister it throws a cloud over his coming trial for corruption which was supposed to start in a week or two. There are conflicting legal opinions over whether a sitting Prime Minister can go to trial while leading Israel. Netanyahu hopes that in 18 months the whole corruption case will fall apart and the issue becomes moot.
The second implication is even more important, part of the coalition agreement stipulates that Israel can proceed with the annexation of Jewish communities in the West Bank along with annexation of the Jordan Valley. This would probably mean the death knell of the two state solution with the Palestinians as well as the existing Peace Treaty with Jordan. Jordan does not want Israeli tanks on it’s borders especially since a huge portion of Israel wants Jordan to become the new national home of the Palestinians and it is only the King of Jordan which prevents Israel from forcing Palestinians out of Israel and the West Bank. Below is a map of the West Bank showing in brown what would remain as Palestinian territory and everything else Israeli.
As you can understand this would be a disaster for the Palestinian economy since very person or truck going from one brown area to another brown area would go through Israeli territory and require Israeli permission, something very difficult to obtain. Goods and services movement in Palestine would come to a halt or at best a substantial delay.
It is unknown whether Israel will proceed with this annexation since the E.U. and most of the world is strongly opposed. Trump, unfortunately, supports this move by Israel as enhancing prospects for peace with Palestinians. This is totally unrealistic but unfortunately believed by many in Israel who hope that all Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank eventually move to Jordan because life is too tough where they currently live.