Democrats dreaming of a Harry Truman type upset on election day might take a deep breath if this piece in The Politico is any indication. It’s finding:
Just over a week before Election Day, signs of widespread Republican enthusiasm are apparent in the early-voter data, including in some places with highly competitive statewide races. Yet at the same time, for Democrats there are promising data in numerous states suggesting that the idea of a devastating turnout gap may be overblown.
POLITICO surveyed early voting through Saturday in 20 states, and in 14 of the 15 that have voter registration by party, the GOP’s early turnout percentage is running ahead of the party’s share of statewide voter registration — whether measured against 2006 or 2008, when President Barack Obama’s campaign led to a surge in Democratic voter registration. As a result, Republicans say they’re turning the tables on the Democratic dominance of early voting that paved the way for Obama’s victory in 2008 — and that independents’ lean toward the GOP this year will do the rest.
The most likely bet: The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato’s contention that the overall numbers have not changed and that the GOP will get the House and possibly just miss the Senate. Possibly it can pick up the Senate too. Forget Dick Morris or other ideology based analysts and pundits. Follow Sabato HERE. He now sees the GOP as picking up House seats (they take the House) and 8-9 Senate seats (they don’t get the Senate). And Americans will get the divided government they often seem to prefer.
Least likely bet: Various theories that due to a painstaking ground game, the Democrats will somehow hold onto the House.
ALSO WORTH READING: Barack Obama, the Democratic Party apparatus and Congressional Democrats are also under fire from some Democrats. Taylor Marsh essentially argues here that what is unfolding here is political negligence on the part of the Obama administration and some Democrats.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.