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by Thomas Hoffman
With the nationwide Democratic Primaries approaching, many eyes are on another primary in New York City. Queens is about to elect its next District Attorney for the first time in decades. With Queens on the brink of electing a new District Attorney, and the old fashioned “hard-on-crime” Richard Brown gone from office (even earlier than planned due to his death), talk about how New York crime is dropping is frequently heard. The theme that a “tough on crime” DA like Richard Brown is no longer needed is constantly heard in the Queens DA Democratic primary.
In addition, in New York City, the “stop and frisk” policy has been dissolved.
In the past there have been numerous articles reporting on the miraculous drop in crime rates here in New York. Newsday featured an article that reports homicide rates are similar to those of the 1950s. Slate magazine published an article that asks why the public is still so afraid of crime, despite the plummeting crime rates.
Are crime rates really dropping? Is it really safer to step out for that late night stroll in any neighborhood of our choice? Or to board the subway? Or the late night ride on the subway? Either the murder rate is down or it isn’t? There is no way for media or politicians to distort the truth like that when dealing with statistics. The numbers do not lie right? Or do they?
Despite the calls that the need for “tough on crime” politicians is no more, crime still plaques cities like New York City. At last report there was yet another subway attack. One may wonder, shouldn’t stories like this call for Democrats to challenge New York City Mayor de Blasio, who opposes “stop and frisk”? Shouldn’t other Democrats in races like the Queens DA race attempt to distance themselves from de Blasio’s weakness on crime?
Actually, despite attacks like the subway attack on May 21, the reverse is happening. Democrats (especially here in NYC) are catering to the idea that “tough on crime” politicians are no longer required. However, on television, crime stories are more frequent than ever. How can it be that the news is just as flooded with crime stories, despite this supposed drop in crime? The so called drop in murders is not quite what it appears to be. Murder rates are down. This does not necessarily guarantee the attacks, muggings or other crime rates are in fact down. With today’s technology, victims now have a much better chance of surviving attacks, even surviving gunshot wounds. It is in fact the technology now available in the emergency rooms where crime victims are taken that plays a key factor in the drop in murder rates.
The chances of being attacked are not as low as the these statistics and crime reports will have you believe. The chances of surviving the crime are now up, which results in the lower murder rates. UMassAmherst reports that it is the improvement in emergency room technology that is a major factor in this crime rate drop. Citylab.com reports that improvement in Emergency Room technology has played a significant role in drop in murder rates. Professor Anthony Harris of the University of Massachusetts issued a study that proved US murder rates would have tripled if not for improved medical technology.
This article reports that attack rate is in fact 700% percent higher than the 1930s. The article goes on to support the idea that the real reason behind the drop in homicide numbers is in fact due to improved Emergency Room technology, not a drop in crime itself. Yet another article from fivethirtyeight.com reveals crime is actually higher and goes on to explain how many crimes are not in fact reported.
Certain progressives claim that the murder rate in NYC is as low as it was in the 1950s. Going back to the Vietnam era, there has been a massive improvement in emergency health care. So it is deceiving to compare murder rates of 2019 to the days of the 1950’s before this technology was available.
According to fivethirtyeight.com, former commissioner Kelly accused the 2016 commissioner William Bratton of distorting crime statistics by instructing officers to not include victims of broken glass caused by gunfire or victims whose clothes but not bodies were impacted by shootings.
This chart from ThinkProgress supports the claim the crime rate is not in fact dropping, despite the claims from various politicians.
This problem is not unique to New York City. CNN reports that in Chicago, despite months of lower crime, on a single day in June 2018, twenty- one people were shot, and two died. Citylab.com released an article that explains that the lower murder rate in Chicago is in fact due to the improved Emergency Room technology.
Now that de Blasio is running for president, New York City crime is a national topic. He is sure to bring up the subject of supposedly lower crime in New York City during his presidential bid, especially as he campaigns against more moderate candidates like former Vice President Biden.
Crime rates may be down to a certain extent, however, think twice before going for that late night walk. Despite the claims of progressive candidates, it is still not quite the same as a stroll through the 1950s.
Image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay