A new U.S. intelligence assessment concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting previous assessments that the Tehran regime was working on building a bomb.
The stuning development will have two immediate effects:
* Change the dynamic of the ongoing international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its nuclear energy program.
* Change the nature of the debate about Iran in the president campaign and undercut the Republican candidates who have endorsed a military strikes.
The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, concludes that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”
The development brings to mind Saddam Hussein’s dogged efforts in the run-up to the second Iraq war to create the impression that he had ongoing nuclear and other WMD programs, which U.S. intelligence agencies bought lock, stock and barrel despite evidence to the contrary. Has the Ahmadinejad being trying to do something similar?
In a separate statement accompanying the assessment that was an unintentional allusion to a White House typically obsessed with spinning the news, Deputy Director of National Intelligence Donald M. Kerr said that given the new conclusions, it was important to release the report publicly “to ensure that an accurate presentation is available.”
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