Voters in Connecticut go to the polls today to cast their ballots in one of the most closely watched races in the country: incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman versus his challenger in the Democratic primary, anti-war businessman Ned Lamont.
We did an extensive analysis and blog round up on this story HERE. But today, as the Nutmeg state’s registered Democrats (some of them independents who have recently registered to vote as Democrats in this primary) cast their ballots, here are two particularly interesting scene setters to ponder.
(1) MSNBC’s Tom Curry’s piece noting that polls show Lieberman is gaining ground. Key excerpts:
A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday showed Lamont leading Lieberman 51 percent to 45 percent among likely Democratic voters, a lead within the poll’s margin of error.
Lamont had a seven-point bigger lead in last week’s Quinnipiac survey.
“Public polling suggests we haven’t closed the sale,� said Lieberman campaign manager Sean Smith Sunday night before the new Quinnipiac data came out.
But he said voters were having second thoughts about Lamont. “They’re asking, ‘do we really want to wake up on Wednesday morning without Joe Lieberman? And with a guy we don’t know much about?�
That could happen. But the key problem for Lieberman is: if many Connecticut Democrats feel strongly that they want to send President George Bush a message, it’s unlikely they will opt for Lieberman. Big wig GOPers in politics and talking heads praising Lieberman won’t help him with these voters. There’s the saying “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” In Connecticut Lieberman could fall victim to “The friend of my enemy is my enemy.”
On the other hand, Lieberman has been around Connecticut’s political scene so that, as Smith says, some Democrats could balk about opting for someone new. But will the desire to send Bush — and party leaders (and Lieberman) — a message trump Lieberman’s progressive record on other matters?
In our post (linked above) we gave you our analysis. Here’s Curry’s:
If Lieberman wins on Tuesday night, it will be a severe rebuff to the left wing of the Democratic Party and to Moveon.org which has worked to propel his campaign. It will suggest that the bark of the anti-Lieberman blogs, such as MyDD.com, is worse than their bite.
If Lamont wins, the questions for Wednesday morning are:Will Lieberman follow through on his promise to run as an independent? Can he go to his national network of donors and raise the money he’d need to run an independent campaign? Or will Democratic Party leaders in Washington such as Sen. Chuck Schumer pass the word to Democratic donors to shun Lieberman? Will the Lamont-Lieberman battle, if it goes on into the fall, suck up money that Democrats might have spent on other close races, such as those in Missouri and Washington state? Has the battle between the two men sown seeds of bitterness that will poison Democratic politics for years to come?
(2)The All Spin Zone’s Richard Cranium’s piece which should be read in full. A small portion of it 4 U:
This isn’t about Lieberman’s unfettered support for failed Bush administration policies in Iraq, although certainly that’s the marquee issue in the campaign. If Joe Lieberman tanks tomorrow, it will be because of his lack of political instinct – or that combined with the “chutzpahâ€? and “entitlementâ€? factors.
Joe Lieberman isn’t the worst senator on Capitol Hill. Hell, he’s probably not even in the top quartile of bad senators. What has taken Lieberman to the brink is the incumbency syndrome. He lost touch with the voters that he represents, and their wishes and desires. After all, in an ideal world, that’s what being a representative in Washington is all about (ok, so don’t laugh me off of the internets, please…)
There’s one other issue that puzzles me. Until Lieberman got smacked down in his aborted 2004 presidential bid, he was much more critical of the Bush administration. I think Joe got his nose bent out of joint at the Democratic Party establishment for their lack of support – and to the proletariat in general for not pulling his lever in the presidential primaries. His ego was bruised, and gawd knows these guys have huge egos.
Whatever happens tomorrow, the democratic process won. The well organized, previously underdog campaign of Ned Lamont caught fire, for a whole host of reasons. There are many lessons to learn, both for those who wish to challenge the political status quo, and for politicians currently holding elected office.
Indeed, if Lieberman loses it’s panic time for many Democratic politicians since it would mean the new conventional wisdom is that being too close to George Bush could be dangerous to your political health (a conclusion some Republicans have seemingly reached as well these days).
If Lieberman wins, the segment of the Democratic party that has demanded that it accentuate its differences with the Republicans on many issues, particularly on the war, will be said to have suffered a major setback — but it IS true that Lamont was a long shot who in the end was perceived as considerably more than that. Will perception be confirmed by votes later today? Yesterday news reports said Lieberman was upbeat and smiling. Will he be that way later tonight?
UPDATE: Red State’s Dales has an excellent post as well, showing that there are all kinds of factors analysis could be missing so that the outcome is not as certain no matter HOW you interpret it. Read this post in full. Here’s a key part:
When I add all of these factors together, I am left with more uncertainty than I normally have when looking at publicly available polling data. It would not shock me if Lamont won by double digits. It would not shock me if the winner is not known until deep into the night and the last precincts report. However, it would also not shock me if Lieberman won by a wide margin—and based on most things I have read, should this occur I might be the only one.
UPDATE II: Be sure to read Citizen Smash’s take here.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.