A new CNN poll finds the Iraq war will play a key role in how people cast their votes — and it compares some numbers in 2006 with 1994, a year when anti-Clinton administration sentiment cost Democrats control of Congress:
President Bush’s unpopularity — due largely to the war in Iraq — seems likely to affect GOP candidates in congressional midterm elections in November, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday.
Fifty-five percent of 1,004 Americans said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who has supported Bush administration policies, according to the poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation on behalf of CNN. Forty percent said they would be more likely.
And then there’s this:
Asked a similar question in 1994 regarding President Clinton, 51 percent of Americans said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who had supported the Democratic administration.
The war in Iraq appears to be a main factor in Republican opposition, poll results show. Fifty-eight percent of poll respondents said they are opposed to the war, compared with 39 percent who approve of it.
The war seems to have gained some popularity; 61 percent of poll respondents last month were opposed to the war.
Sixty-two percent said they believe no one is winning the war; 25 percent said the United States is winning and 12 percent said the insurgents are winning.
A few thoughts:
- The fact the war is doing a bit better in the polls can’t be dismissed. It shows that many Americans are constantly reading and mentally processing news on the war and weighing various factors about it. In other words, it is not a “given” that that it will give the Democrats a massive victory — but it could play a key role in giving the Democrats a victory.
- Republicans are facing a “throw the bums out” attitude but most notably a kind of GOP/George Bush fatigue. It’s difficult to combat that by mostly countering with negatives aimed at Democrats. The White House and GOPers need to be offering some positive reasons for voters to “stay the course” in continuing one-party government.
- It underscores the fact that more then ever the Democrats need to conduct their campaigns offering specific alternative policies, rather than making the mistake of just running as the anti-GOP or the anti-Bush.
On the other hand, if this holds, just not being the GOP could be enough to help the Democrats regain control of at least the House. The question: which of the parties will overstep in this campaign and lose voters by going too far? Also: will that matter or will voters again show that “all politics is local” and, in the end, cast fewer protest votes than specific votes for or against candidates?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.