While the jury is out on whether Israel or Hezbollah attained their war objectives, a quick anecdotal poll of Russian, Chinese and Indian analysts suggests that in the eyes of the wider world the real loser is the United States.
Together with the bloody mess in Iraq, the mess in Lebanon is a set back for American prestige and influence. In India, where President George Bush is more liked than in almost any other Asian country, there is concern that Hezbollah has outwitted him on all counts.
President Bush says Hezbollah has been defeated as it will no longer be a state within a state because south Lebanon will be occupied by non-Hezbollah troops.
In contrast, although Chinese, Russian and Indian analysts hail from very dissimilar countries they are reaching similar conclusions that Hezbollah’s position has been strengthened.
Within Lebanese politics, Hezbollah’s prestige will be so unassailable that its Christian, Sunni and Amal Shiite rivals will not be able to criticize it openly for some time to come. Nor will any Arab government be able to castigate it for fear of angering the street.
Therefore, the most likely prospect is that Hezbollah’s fighters will be integrated into the Lebanese army instead of being asked to disarm. That will make them very influential because of their experience in fighting Israel. Their addition might also make Shiites the overall majority in the army. As such, a mere militia will have access to all the modern panoply, including command and control skills, of a national army.
At the next elections, Hezbollah’s political wing is likely to increase its seats in parliament because it candidates, associated with the heroes who fought Israel, would attract greater voter turnout. It should also gain as a social organization because it knows almost every household in South Beirut and South Lebanon and its cadres are generally untainted by corruption.
In his first speech after the ceasefire, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah spent less time on self-congratulation than on promising financial compensation and help with reconstruction. That will reinforce his popularity.
The Lebanese government has never been present in south Beirut and south Lebanon. It will not be able to compete with Hezbollah’s cadres in providing social services and may have to channel Western reconstruction aid through them. If the US cuts off aid to prevent the involvement of Hezbollah cadres, it will incite further hatred of America among potential terrorists.
As the extent of devastation becomes clearer, international humanitarian organizations are likely to criticize Israel and some might even try to bring wars crimes charges against Tel Aviv. American diplomacy will probably prevent such charges from moving forward but they will further isolate Israel in world opinion.
Since they are so closely identified with Israeli positions, American diplomats will also get less respectful hearing on Middle East issues. Other non-Muslim nations are losing respect for America and Israel because their policies of trying to bomb fundamentalist Islam into submission are making matters worse rather than better. To them, the humanitarian toll also seems disproportionate.