Bad polling news for Hillary Clinton and the concept in general of political dynasties — or national presidential candidate political retreads:
With the presidential election more than two years away, a CNN poll released Monday suggests that nearly half of Americans would “definitely vote against” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Respondents were asked whether they would “definitely vote for,” “consider voting for,” or “definitely vote against” three Democrats and three Republicans who might run for president in 2008.
Regarding potential Democratic candidates, 47 percent of respondents said they would “definitely vote against” both Clinton, the junior senator from New York who is running for re-election this year, and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the party’s candidate in 2004.
Starting out with a candidate with high negatives means a party’s campaign has to be the “sell” and the “UNsell” and — no matter how you view X party canididate — it means the party has starting a race carrying some baggage.
But as this poll shows, it isn’t just Hillary Clinton who’s getting the negatives. If you look at it, it seems to be people related to past candidates or people who’ve run on a national ticket before:
Forty-eight percent said the same of former Vice President Al Gore, who has repeatedly denied he intends to run again for president.
Among the Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani fared better than the Democrats, and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush fared worse.
Only 30 percent said they would “definitely vote against” Giuliani; 34 percent said that of McCain.As for Bush, brother of the current president, 63 percent said there was no way he would get their vote. The younger Bush has denied interest in running for president in 2008.
This suggests that Jeb Bush (who is said to have a good political ear) more than ever will stay out of 2008 until he has a chance to further solidify his own national persona and let some of the emotions lingering over his brother’s terms in office cool. MORE:
Among all choices, Clinton had the highest positive number; of those polled, 22 percent said they would “definitely vote for” her.
Giuliani was next with 19 percent, followed by Gore with 17 percent, Kerry with 14 percent, McCain with 12 percent and Bush at 9 percent.
However, it’s generally more of a task to have people unlearn perceptions than learn them. All of this taken together suggests that the Democrats may have some additional work to do in 2008 if Clinton, Gore or Kerry are the nominees — more fence-mending than a likely GOP candidate will have.
UPDATE:
— The latest poll shows Hillary Clinton is headed to a landslide re-election victory.
—Outside The Beltway has some thoughts and a good round up on this poll.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.