The word has reportedly gone out to conservatives that the message has been “received” on Attorney General Alberto Gonzales — and Bush’s longtime friend will not be the name sent to the Senate as a Supreme Court Justice nominee.
White House officials have assured select conservative leaders that they will not nominate Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to the Supreme Court to replace retiring Associate Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, according to a conservative familiar with the behind-the-scenes discussions.
The message has filtered out to conservative activists that Gonzales, whom many activists believe would be too liberal on abortion and racial preference issues, is no longer a threat to their cause. That could portend a fierce battle in the Senate in September, as Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) has said Gonzales would be a qualified nominee, suggesting that his selection could have achieved bipartisan consensus.
The report in The Hill goes on to say:
Senior administration officials have told select conservative leaders that President Bush is likely to nominate either Edith Jones or Edith Clement, members of the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, the conservative source said.
It is also possible that would nominate Michigan Supreme Court Justice Maura Corrigan or former Texas Supreme Court Justice Priscilla Owen, whom the Senate recently confirmed to the 5th Circuit.
Jones and Clement have been mentioned as possible nominees in recent news articles, along with federal appeals-court Judges Michael Luttig, John Roberts Jr. and Michael McConnell and Harvie Wilkinson. But the chances of the four men have slimmed significantly since Chief Justice William Rehnquist’s said late last week that he would not retire soon. It is viewed as politically difficult to replace O’Connor with a conservative white man.
Other conservatives corroborated the account that Gonzales’s nomination is now “off the table� in the wake of vigorous conservative protests in response to rumors that Bush was leaning toward appointing his longtime friend. Gonzales served as a Texas Supreme Court justice and White House counsel before being named attorney general. Just this month, Bush assailed conservative critics of Gonzales, saying; “I don’t like it when a friend gets criticized. I’m loyal to my friends.�
But the activists’ criticism clearly has had an effect.
“There’s a consensus that the White House has quietly signaled ‘message received’ on Gonzales,� a second conservative strategist said.
This makes sense from a political standpoint: if GWB had two slots to fill he could try to please each wing of his party. But, for now, William Rhenquist says he’s not going anywhere. So Bush must pick and choose in a political context marked by the realities of a steady decrease in poll numbers and a campaign by social conservatives reminding Bush of his campaign pledges on court appointees.
Democratic centrist blogger Bull Moose predicted the info contained in this Hill report earlier:
Recent polls indicate that the popularity of the Republican Congress is continuing to plummet. While at this point it is far too premature to suggest that the GOP will lose control of Congress next year, the right wing agenda is in jeopardy. The President is rapidly in danger of gaining lame duck status.
That means that if the right is too have any lasting domestic gains from this Administration it must come from the Supreme Court.
He notes another piece indicating that the tipoff was the news reports saying Laura Bush thought a woman should be appointed to the court. Whoever Bush names may be difficult for the Democrats to easily battle, Bull Moose notes:
While it may seem logical for the President to reach out to the center with his nomination/nominations in order to improve his standing with moderates and independents, that is contrary to the political dynamic within the Republican Party. There are no moderates with influence in the upper reaches of the party any more. The only thing that is holding up this President is his base. Now, more than ever, he will likely stick with them.
Don’t expect, however, that Bush will nominate a Bork with an incendiary paper trail. The nominees will appear to be earnest, qualified, with a “judicial temperament.” However, any Federalist insider will recognize him or her as one of their own. They will be very difficult for the Democrats to block. Anticipate W. will also nominate a woman and a minority.
Expect the nomination any day now. Expect some thoughtful Democratic opposition and some lock-step Democratic opposition. But unless it’s a real red-flag nomination, expect it to pass. And we agree with Bull Moose: expect the Republicans to use the “nuclear option” if necessary to get the nomination through.
And Gonzales? Bush will still eventually have one more — perhaps two more — nominations during his term. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Gonzales be proposed next time around. If he puts someone on the court to his conservative-base’s complete liking he may have an easier time next time pitching Gonzales. He’d still face stiff opposition but could figure he has paid off one of his campaign debts.
But if it is a relatively low-key candidate who doesn’t have an alarming paper trail or a rabble-rousing image that itself could become the prototype for the next Bush nomination(s).
UPDATE: There’s some particularly interesting speculation on the liberal blog No More Mister Nice Blog.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.