Has what some analysts call “the second term curse” been set in motion in the case of President George Bush?
It may be too early to tell if the “second term curse” has begun, but the latest USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll shows Bush’s approval rating has fallen to 45%, the lowest point of his presidency.
Then you can add to that some other factors. Earlier polls showed the vast majority of Americans (read that Democrats, Republicans, Evangelicals, Independents etc.) were not happy about Bush teaming up with House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to take dramatic unprecedented action on the years-long Terri Schiavo controversy.
And then there’s Social Security reform: the President’s proposal is to political wildfire what a Viagra shortage is to Bob Dole’s love life.
Then factor in a NEW simmering issue: immigration reform. The Schiavo case accentuated divisions within the GOP between the pro-small government libertarians (who admire Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan) and the Christian Evangelicals, who say they want small government — unless big government can step in and give them the policies they want. Bush seems to be stepping into a political buzzsaw now as he tries to build bridges with Mexico amid charges from some in his party that he has been negligent in not only enforcing immigration control but giving the Border Patrol what it wants.
The latest poll results say “WARNING SIGN” all over them. USA TODAY reports:
The finding, in a poll of 1,001 adults Monday through Wednesday, is a dip from 52% in a poll taken last week. Bush’s previous lowest rating, 46%, was recorded last May.
The White House declined to comment. Republican National Committee spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said that Bush is taking on “tough issues, whether it’s to reform Social Security, promoting the spread of democracy or making a renewed pitch to Congress to pass comprehensive energy reform.”
A POOR EXCUSE: many Presidents throughout history have taken on tough issues. They skillfully went out and used political skills to build working coalitions — they didn’t just pick and issue and try to shove or batter it through with the votes they already had from their side. The style of this White House is not akin to the political style of the first George Bush, or Ronald Reagan, or JFK, or LBJ, or Nixon. It’s a new style in American politics where coalition building and old-fashioned attempts to aggregate interests are almost looked upon as wimpish. More about the poll:
Independent political analysts said the drop may reflect opposition to the White House and Congress intervening in the Terri Schiavo matter.
“You have to wonder if people didn’t feel that the president and the Congress couldn’t be spending their time working on Social Security and other problems,” said Charlie Cook, editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
On Monday, Bush signed a bill passed in an unusual weekend session of Congress allowing federal courts to take jurisdiction over a decision by Schiavo’s husband, Michael, to have her feeding tube removed.
A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll last weekend found that 61% would have a spouse’s feeding tube removed under similar circumstances.
Here is the biggest warning sign for GWB and the GOP:
The new poll found the largest drop for Bush came among men, self-described conservatives and churchgoers.
The poll also found an increased number of Democrats. In this survey, 37% said they were Democrats and 32% said they were Republicans. Last week, 32% said they were Democrats and 35% said they were Republicans.
Bush’s handling of the economy also appears to have contributed to the poll’s findings.
Bush’s economic ratings:
• 59% said economic conditions are getting worse, Bush’s highest negative number on the economy in two years.
• 32% rated economic conditions good or excellent, the lowest rating in over a year.
Not good news for Bush/DeLay/Rove. And YES: politics most certainly IS a see-saw. Bush’s numbers could (and probably will) go up again. But we will say it once more: George Bush won in two elections by peeling off centrist independents and centrist Democrats. He seems most worried about his Evangelical base and he may well shore them up — while chasing away centrists who might conclude, quite simply, that he (and by association) his brother are not to be trusted again.
ON THE OTHER HAND….James Joyner (an analyst who is quite solid) notes that when you go to the Gallup site it doesn’t seem to show much of a change. Our modest prediction (and we have been wrong before): it will be surprising if you don’t see some erosion due to all of the factors we noted above plus the hubris that inflicts second term presidents and parties. (We heard a LOT of hubris on talk radio with callers urging Jeb Bush to defy the courts and just go in and take custody of Schiavo and let the courts do something about it. Unwise. If it happens, the Bushes nationally will be political toast).
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.