Kentucky is a unique state politically, voting Republican for the most part at the federal level but supporting Democrats for state offices. There is therefore a strong base for both parties in the Presidential race.
President: This will be a prime target for both parties, the state supported Clinton twice and Bush twice. Obama will try to take advantage of the minority vote and try to gain support with labor. McCain will rely on the traditional GOP base and may try to appeal to unhappy Clinton voters.
It will be close but I think Obama’s problems with blue collar/Clinton voters will be too much to overcome
Leans Republican
Senate: This will be a tight battle between incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) and former Gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford (D). Some polls have shown Lunsford running close but he has tended to run better in polling than in performance during his 2003 and 2007 races for Governor.
McConnell is also a fundraising expert and will have plenty of money to spend. This race is one to watch and will probably shift around in the ratings between now and November, but for the moment McConnell has the edge
Leans Republican
House: Democrats will keep control in the 6th district while Republicans will rule in the 1st, 4th and 5th.
In the 2nd District we have incumbent Ron Lewis (R) retiring and this is a marginally GOP district. The contest will be between two state senators, Republican Brett Guthrie and Democrat David Boswell. If the Democrats have a really good year they could take this seat but with most of the attention in the 3rd I would give the GOP the edge.
Leans Republican
In the 3rd District we have freshman John Yarmuth versus former incumbent and candidate for Governor Ann Northrup. Northrup was controversial and has remained so. There is enough of a GOP base to make the race close but I would give the edge to Yarmuth
Leans Democrat