ADVISORY TO READERS: Keep in mind when you read this that polls are snapshots and often contradictory. If you walk into a room with professionals during Campaign 2008 after a primary and see some red-faced people wearing sunglasses so that they’re not recognizable, they are likely to be pollsters. But, even so, this poll is stunning:
Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.
Obama’s steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.
Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)
He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton’s 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.
Note, however, that this poll doesn’t reflect what some other polls — which show Obama making some inroads — are reporting. But some key polls ARE SHOWING a shift.
Go HERE to Real Clear Politics. Look in the upper right hand corner and look the poll spread (they average various polls). Clinton was in the double-digits in Pennsylvania. Now she is down to a 6 percent lead. That is a MAJOR shift.
Also check out THIS PAGE at Pollster.com and you can review various polls and see how they’ve changed. Not all of them put Obama ahead, but there are signs of inroads.
Will we soon see a “hail Mary” pass from the Clinton camp to change these numbers?
CORRECTION: We inadvertently chopped off part of the headline when this first went on the site so it said Clinton took the lead. We fixed it within two minutes of it appearing on the site but the original could be on some search engines. TMV regrets the error.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.